Digiesse PraiaTortora vs Trapani 1905
Digiesse PraiaTortora
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Trapani 1905
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Digiesse PraiaTortora win
31.5%
DrawPick
39.3%
Trapani 1905 win
29.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.4%
No50.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%
How much we know
Digiesse PraiaTortora history0 matches
Trapani 1905 history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Draw
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why a draw is the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Digiesse PraiaTortora are rated 41 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,459. On rating alone Digiesse PraiaTortora would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Digiesse PraiaTortora
Trapani 1905
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1459.2
0
ELO · Matches
56
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1459.2
1459.2
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
40.76
Current ELO Difference
-40.76
0.56
Expected score
0.44
0
History Matches
56
—
Residual Mean
-0.04
—
Overperformance
46.86
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
0.40
—
Goals for per game
0.80
—
Goals against per game
1.40
—
Win rate
0.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
0.60
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Goals against per game
1.90
—
Win rate
10.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
56
—
PPG
1.25
—
Win rate
33.9%
—
Draw rate
23.2%
—
Loss rate
42.9%
—
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
—
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
—
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
30
—
PPG
1.03
—
Win rate
26.7%
—
Draw rate
23.3%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
—
Over 2.5 rate
36.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
0
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.16
—
Scoring rate
67.9%
—
BTTS rate
46.4%
—
Goals for per game
0.87
—
Scoring rate
63.3%
—
BTTS rate
43.3%
0
History Matches
56
—
Goals Mean
1.16
—
Goals Std
1.22
—
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
—
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
—
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.34
—
Conceding rate
75.0%
—
Goals against per game
1.40
—
Conceding rate
76.7%
0
History Matches
56
—
Conceded Mean
1.34
—
Conceded Std
1.18
—
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
56
—
Result entropy
0.97
—
Goal Difference Std
1.96
—
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
56
0
Lead Matches
14
—
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.71
0
Trailing Matches
19
—
Non-loss rate
15.8%
—
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
195.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
0
Normal Rest History Matches
38
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
0
Long Rest History Matches
15
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.01
—
Portability PPG Range
0.02
—
Portability Score
97.77
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO40.76
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-56
History Matches-30
History Matches-56
History Matches-56
History Matches-56
Eligible Matches-56
Lead Matches-14
Trailing Matches-19
Halftime Coverage Matches-56
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-38
Long Rest History Matches-15
Current Team ELO40.76
Current Opponent ELO-40.76
Current ELO Difference81.53
Expected score0.12
History Matches-56
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Digiesse PraiaTortora
W
Digiesse PraiaTortora1–0Vigor Lamezia25 Oct · home
Pick: Vigor Lamezia 38% · missed L
Vibonese2–0Digiesse PraiaTortora4 Oct · away
Pick: Vibonese 66% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Trapani 1905
D
Trapani 19052–2Enna1 Nov · home
Pick: Trapani 1905 47% · missed D
Siracusa1–1Trapani 190525 Oct · away
Pick: Siracusa 44% · missed W
Trapani 19051–0CastrumFavara18 Oct · home
Pick: Trapani 1905 43% · hit W
Trapani 19051–0Reggina4 Oct · home
Pick: Reggina 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Digiesse PraiaTortora and Trapani 1905 meet in Serie D - Girone I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Digiesse PraiaTortora win 31.5%, draw 39.3%, Trapani 1905 win 29.2%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 50.6%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.