ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone I Italy Group I - 11 2026

Enna vs Reggina

Enna Home · Elo 1,455
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Reggina Away · Elo 1,640
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Reggina win
Enna win
27.9%
Draw
24.2%
Reggina winPick
47.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Enna history48 matches
Reggina history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Reggina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Reggina are rated 185 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,640 against 1,455. On rating alone Reggina would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Reggina score more

    1.25 goals a game over 48 matches for Enna, against 1.47 over 55 for Reggina.

  • Reggina concede fewer

    Enna concede 1.44 a game, Reggina 0.64.

  • Enna games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Enna matches, against 33% for Reggina. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Enna
Reggina
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.4
ELO
1639.9
48
ELO · Matches
55
1455.4
Current Team ELO
1639.9
1639.9
Current Opponent ELO
1455.4
-184.5
Current ELO Difference
184.5
0.26
Expected score
0.74
48
History Matches
55
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.12
46.57
Overperformance
58.92
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
0.50
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
55
1.04
PPG
2.11
22.9%
Win rate
65.5%
35.4%
Draw rate
14.5%
41.7%
Loss rate
20.0%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
58.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
32.7%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.4%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
28
1.13
PPG
2.21
26.1%
Win rate
67.9%
34.8%
Draw rate
17.9%
39.1%
Loss rate
14.3%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
42.9%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
10.7%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
23
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.47
64.6%
Scoring rate
81.8%
54.2%
BTTS rate
32.7%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.25
69.6%
Scoring rate
78.6%
56.5%
BTTS rate
25.0%
48
History Matches
55
1.25
Goals Mean
1.47
1.35
Goals Std
1.06
64.6%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.44
Goals against per game
0.64
83.3%
Conceding rate
43.6%
1.39
Goals against per game
0.46
82.6%
Conceding rate
35.7%
48
History Matches
55
1.44
Conceded Mean
0.64
0.98
Conceded Std
0.86
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.5%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.5%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
0.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
56.4%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
64.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
56.4%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
64.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
56.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
55
0.97
Result entropy
0.80
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.30
2.60
Stability score
19.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
55
10
Lead Matches
25
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.93
24
Trailing Matches
7
33.3%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.22
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
15
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.02
Portability PPG Range
0.84
98.22
Portability Score
54.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-184.5
PPG-1.07
GF-0.22
GA0.80
PPG-1.08
PPG-2.20
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.40
Failed-to-score rate17.2%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.47
Failed-to-score rate9.0%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.80
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.40
Conceded 2+ rate29.2%
Conceded 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score-17.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.11
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-0.82
Portability Score43.91
Rest days14.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.25
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.09
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Current Team ELO-184.5
Current Opponent ELO184.5
Current ELO Difference-369.1
Expected score-0.49
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-12.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Enna

D
Trapani 19052–2Enna1 Nov · away
Pick: Trapani 1905 47% · missed
L
Vigor Lamezia3–0Enna18 Oct · away
Pick: Enna 37% · missed
L
Modica3–0Enna4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Reggina

W
Reggina5–2Ragusa1 Nov · home
Pick: Reggina 55% · hit
D
CastrumFavara2–2Reggina28 Oct · away
Pick: Reggina 45% · missed
W
Nissa1–2Reggina18 Oct · away
Pick: Reggina 41% · hit
L
Igea Virtus3–2Reggina7 Oct · away
Pick: Reggina 41% · missed
L
Trapani 19051–0Reggina4 Oct · away
Pick: Reggina 43% · missed

About this match

Enna and Reggina meet in Serie D - Girone I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Enna win 27.9%, draw 24.2%, Reggina win 47.9%. The pick is Reggina win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.