ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone I Italy Group I - 11 2026

CastrumFavara vs Vibonese

CastrumFavara Home · Elo 1,460
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vibonese Away · Elo 1,450
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CastrumFavara win
CastrumFavara winPick
49.9%
Draw
23.6%
Vibonese win
26.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%

How much we know

CastrumFavara history52 matches
Vibonese history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why CastrumFavara are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,460 against 1,450. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.08 goals a game over 52 matches for CastrumFavara, against 1.04 over 49 for Vibonese.

  • Defences are close

    CastrumFavara concede 1.44 a game, Vibonese 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of CastrumFavara matches, against 45% for Vibonese. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CastrumFavara
Vibonese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.3
ELO
1449.6
52
ELO · Matches
49
1460.3
Current Team ELO
1449.6
1449.6
Current Opponent ELO
1460.3
10.64
Current ELO Difference
-10.64
0.52
Expected score
0.48
52
History Matches
49
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.05
47.68
Overperformance
46.29
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
49
1.08
PPG
1.12
26.9%
Win rate
28.6%
26.9%
Draw rate
26.5%
46.2%
Loss rate
44.9%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
24.5%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
25
1.33
PPG
1.08
29.6%
Win rate
24.0%
44.4%
Draw rate
36.0%
25.9%
Loss rate
40.0%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
27
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.04
69.2%
Scoring rate
63.3%
57.7%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.04
74.1%
Scoring rate
64.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
44.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.08
Goals Mean
1.04
0.94
Goals Std
1.03
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
63.3%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
9.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.44
Goals against per game
1.33
80.8%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.40
74.1%
Conceding rate
72.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.06
Conceded Std
1.13
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.8%
17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.74
3.20
Stability score
2.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
49
10
Lead Matches
13
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.79
20
Trailing Matches
16
30.0%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
14
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.11
1.36
Portability PPG Range
0.22
47.07
Portability Score
81.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO10.64
PPG-0.05
GF0.04
GA0.12
PPG0.25
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate6.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate1.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score0.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate23.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range1.14
Portability Score-34.77
Rest days7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO10.64
Current Opponent ELO-10.64
Current ELO Difference21.29
Expected score0.03
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CastrumFavara

L
Nissa5–1CastrumFavara1 Nov · away
Pick: Nissa 44% · hit
D
CastrumFavara2–2Reggina28 Oct · home
Pick: Reggina 45% · missed
L
Trapani 19051–0CastrumFavara18 Oct · away
Pick: Trapani 1905 43% · hit
L
Vigor Lamezia2–0CastrumFavara4 Oct · away
Pick: CastrumFavara 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vibonese

W
Vibonese2–1Milazzo1 Nov · home
Pick: Vibonese 45% · hit
W
Ragusa1–3Vibonese25 Oct · away
Pick: Vibonese 37% · hit
D
Vibonese1–1Gela18 Oct · home
Pick: Vibonese 48% · missed
W
Vibonese2–0Digiesse PraiaTortora4 Oct · home
Pick: Vibonese 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

CastrumFavara and Vibonese meet in Serie D - Girone I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: CastrumFavara win 49.9%, draw 23.6%, Vibonese win 26.5%. The pick is CastrumFavara win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.