ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone I Italy Group I - 11 2026

Sambiase vs Ragusa

Sambiase Home · Elo 1,521
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ragusa Away · Elo 1,451
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sambiase win
Sambiase winPick
44.1%
Draw
34.9%
Ragusa win
21.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.9%
No56.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.7%
Under 2.561.3%

How much we know

Sambiase history51 matches
Ragusa history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sambiase are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sambiase are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,451. On rating alone Sambiase would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.00 goals a game over 51 matches for Sambiase, against 0.92 over 48 for Ragusa.

  • Defences are close

    Sambiase concede 0.94 a game, Ragusa 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    31% of Sambiase matches, against 33% for Ragusa. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sambiase
Ragusa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.1
ELO
1451.0
51
ELO · Matches
48
1521.1
Current Team ELO
1451.0
1451.0
Current Opponent ELO
1521.1
70.12
Current ELO Difference
-70.12
0.60
Expected score
0.40
51
History Matches
48
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.13
Overperformance
46.42
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
48
1.35
PPG
1.13
35.3%
Win rate
27.1%
29.4%
Draw rate
31.3%
35.3%
Loss rate
41.7%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
56.3%
31.4%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
3.9%
Over 3.5 rate
14.6%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.33
PPG
0.79
33.3%
Win rate
16.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
54.2%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
4.2%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
0.92
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
47.1%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.58
62.5%
Scoring rate
41.7%
45.8%
BTTS rate
29.2%
51
History Matches
48
1.00
Goals Mean
0.92
0.89
Goals Std
1.20
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
27.5%
Scored 2+ rate
22.9%
5.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.94
Goals against per game
1.02
70.6%
Conceding rate
64.6%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.17
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
51
History Matches
48
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.02
0.80
Conceded Std
0.95
19.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.2%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
58.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
58.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
48
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.24
Goal Difference Std
1.46
0.32
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
48
12
Lead Matches
11
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.76
14
Trailing Matches
13
14.3%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.92
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
17
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.63
71.18
Portability Score
61.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO70.12
PPG0.23
GF0.08
GA-0.08
PPG0.54
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate16.7%
Scored 2+ rate4.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-1.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate6.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.23
Portability Score9.84
Rest days-90.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO70.12
Current Opponent ELO-70.12
Current ELO Difference140.2
Expected score0.20
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sambiase

W
Sambiase1–0Nissa25 Oct · home
Pick: Nissa 35% · missed
D
Calcio Avola1–1Sambiase18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ragusa

L
Reggina5–2Ragusa1 Nov · away
Pick: Reggina 55% · hit
L
Ragusa1–3Vibonese25 Oct · home
Pick: Vibonese 37% · hit
L
Igea Virtus3–1Ragusa18 Oct · away
Pick: Igea Virtus 38% · hit
L
Calcio Avola1–0Ragusa4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sambiase and Ragusa meet in Serie D - Girone I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sambiase win 44.1%, draw 34.9%, Ragusa win 21.0%. The pick is Sambiase win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.7%. Both teams to score: 43.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.