ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone I Italy Group I - 11 2026

Siracusa vs Nissa

Siracusa Home · Elo 1,482
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nissa Away · Elo 1,616
Stadio Nicola De Simone, Siracusa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Siracusa win
Siracusa winPick
46.1%
Draw
24.0%
Nissa win
29.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.5%
No44.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Siracusa history57 matches
Nissa history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Siracusa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nissa are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,616 against 1,482. On rating alone Nissa would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.65 goals a game over 57 matches for Siracusa, against 1.55 over 49 for Nissa.

  • Nissa concede fewer

    Siracusa concede 1.25 a game, Nissa 0.94.

  • Siracusa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Siracusa matches, against 49% for Nissa. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Siracusa
Nissa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.1
ELO
1616.1
57
ELO · Matches
49
1482.1
Current Team ELO
1616.1
1616.1
Current Opponent ELO
1482.1
-134.0
Current ELO Difference
134.0
0.32
Expected score
0.68
57
History Matches
49
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.13
48.62
Overperformance
58.96
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.70
Goals for per game
2.20
1.30
Goals against per game
0.30
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.72
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
49
1.49
PPG
1.90
43.9%
Win rate
53.1%
17.5%
Draw rate
30.6%
38.6%
Loss rate
16.3%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.3%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
49.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.5%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
22
2.00
PPG
1.68
60.7%
Win rate
45.5%
17.9%
Draw rate
31.8%
21.4%
Loss rate
22.7%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
28
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.65
Goals for per game
1.55
78.9%
Scoring rate
81.6%
59.6%
BTTS rate
55.1%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.41
85.7%
Scoring rate
81.8%
60.7%
BTTS rate
59.1%
57
History Matches
49
1.65
Goals Mean
1.55
1.34
Goals Std
1.23
78.9%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
22.4%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
0.94
80.7%
Conceding rate
61.2%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.05
75.0%
Conceding rate
68.2%
57
History Matches
49
1.25
Conceded Mean
0.94
0.88
Conceded Std
0.96
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.4%
10.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
19.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
19.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
49
0.94
Result entropy
0.91
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.41
5.86
Stability score
9.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
49
19
Lead Matches
20
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.90
17
Trailing Matches
9
35.3%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.9
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
16
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.77
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.80
Portability PPG Range
0.28
39.24
Portability Score
78.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-134.0
PPG-0.41
GF0.10
GA0.31
PPG0.32
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.62
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches8
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score-3.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.22
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.63
Portability PPG Range1.52
Portability Score-38.89
Rest days20.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO-134.0
Current Opponent ELO134.0
Current ELO Difference-268.0
Expected score-0.37
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-10.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Siracusa

D
Siracusa1–1Trapani 190525 Oct · home
Pick: Siracusa 44% · missed
L
Milazzo1–0Siracusa4 Oct · away
Pick: Siracusa 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nissa

W
Nissa5–1CastrumFavara1 Nov · home
Pick: Nissa 44% · hit
L
Sambiase1–0Nissa25 Oct · away
Pick: Nissa 35% · missed
L
Nissa1–2Reggina18 Oct · home
Pick: Reggina 41% · hit
D
Igea Virtus1–1Nissa4 Oct · away
Pick: Nissa 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Siracusa and Nissa meet in Serie D - Girone I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Nicola De Simone, Siracusa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Siracusa win 46.1%, draw 24.0%, Nissa win 29.9%. The pick is Siracusa win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 55.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.