ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone I Italy Group I - 11 2026

Milazzo vs Vigor Lamezia

Milazzo Home · Elo 1,473
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vigor Lamezia Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Milazzo win
Milazzo winPick
36.2%
Draw
30.9%
Vigor Lamezia win
32.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.4%
No54.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.2%
Under 2.563.8%

How much we know

Milazzo history34 matches
Vigor Lamezia history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Milazzo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,473 against 1,488. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Vigor Lamezia score more

    0.91 goals a game over 34 matches for Milazzo, against 1.26 over 34 for Vigor Lamezia.

  • Defences are close

    Milazzo concede 1.06 a game, Vigor Lamezia 1.03.

  • Vigor Lamezia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    29% of Milazzo matches, against 38% for Vigor Lamezia. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Milazzo
Vigor Lamezia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.6
ELO
1488.3
34
ELO · Matches
34
1472.6
Current Team ELO
1488.3
1488.3
Current Opponent ELO
1472.6
-15.78
Current ELO Difference
15.78
0.48
Expected score
0.52
34
History Matches
34
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.42
Overperformance
48.94
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
0.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.10
0.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
34
1.29
PPG
1.24
35.3%
Win rate
32.4%
23.5%
Draw rate
26.5%
41.2%
Loss rate
41.2%
52.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.7%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
17
1.65
PPG
0.94
47.1%
Win rate
17.6%
23.5%
Draw rate
41.2%
29.4%
Loss rate
41.2%
47.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
29.4%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
5.9%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.13
17
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.91
Goals for per game
1.26
67.6%
Scoring rate
73.5%
38.2%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.18
Goals for per game
0.82
76.5%
Scoring rate
76.5%
35.3%
BTTS rate
58.8%
34
History Matches
34
0.91
Goals Mean
1.26
0.85
Goals Std
1.31
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
17.6%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
2.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
1.03
61.8%
Conceding rate
67.6%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.18
47.1%
Conceding rate
76.5%
34
History Matches
34
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.06
Conceded Std
0.92
29.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.5%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
34
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.37
Goal Difference Std
1.82
2.30
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
34
7
Lead Matches
9
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.81
12
Trailing Matches
11
25.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
13
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-15.78
PPG0.06
GF-0.35
GA0.03
PPG0.71
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate29.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.46
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.58
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score0.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO-15.78
Current Opponent ELO15.78
Current ELO Difference-31.56
Expected score-0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Milazzo

L
Vibonese2–1Milazzo1 Nov · away
Pick: Vibonese 45% · hit
W
Milazzo1–0Modica25 Oct · home
Pick: Milazzo 55% · hit
W
Milazzo1–0Siracusa4 Oct · home
Pick: Siracusa 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vigor Lamezia

L
Vigor Lamezia0–1AC Palermo1 Nov · home
Pick: AC Palermo 41% · hit
L
Digiesse PraiaTortora1–0Vigor Lamezia25 Oct · away
Pick: Vigor Lamezia 38% · missed
W
Vigor Lamezia3–0Enna18 Oct · home
Pick: Enna 37% · missed
W
Vigor Lamezia2–0CastrumFavara4 Oct · home
Pick: CastrumFavara 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Milazzo and Vigor Lamezia meet in Serie D - Girone I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Milazzo win 36.2%, draw 30.9%, Vigor Lamezia win 32.9%. The pick is Milazzo win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.2%. Both teams to score: 45.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.