ACV vs ADO '20
Match result probability Model pick: ACV win
ACV winPick
50.2%
Draw
21.3%
ADO '20 win
28.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.8%
No44.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%
How much we know
ACV history53 matches
ADO '20 history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours ACV
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why ACV are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
ADO '20 are rated 44 Elo points higher
Elo 1,516 against 1,472. On rating alone ADO '20 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
ACV score more
1.40 goals a game over 53 matches for ACV, against 1.14 over 57 for ADO '20.
-
ADO '20 concede fewer
ACV concede 1.94 a game, ADO '20 1.54.
-
ACV games more often go over 2.5 goals
60% of ACV matches, against 46% for ADO '20. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1472.0
ELO
1516.2
53
ELO · Matches
57
1472.0
Current Team ELO
1516.2
1516.2
Current Opponent ELO
1472.0
-44.20
Current ELO Difference
44.20
0.44
Expected score
0.56
53
History Matches
57
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.97
Overperformance
51.50
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.70
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.15
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
57
1.02
PPG
1.35
26.4%
Win rate
38.6%
22.6%
Draw rate
19.3%
50.9%
Loss rate
42.1%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
60.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.6%
39.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
27
1.24
PPG
0.89
36.0%
Win rate
22.2%
16.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
48.0%
Loss rate
55.6%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.14
75.5%
Scoring rate
68.4%
60.4%
BTTS rate
42.1%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.96
80.0%
Scoring rate
63.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
57
1.40
Goals Mean
1.14
1.22
Goals Std
1.05
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.94
Goals against per game
1.54
83.0%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.96
80.0%
Conceding rate
85.2%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
57
1.94
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.55
Conceded Std
1.58
56.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.8%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
17.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
17.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
57
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.09
6.10
Stability score
4.50
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
52
Eligible Matches
47
14
Lead Matches
9
35.7%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.48
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
19
5.9%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.98
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
31
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
21
Long Rest History Matches
27
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.29
Portability PPG Range
1.45
48.22
Portability Score
44.19
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-44.20
PPG-0.33
GF0.26
GA0.40
PPG1.50
PPG0.35
PPG1.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.40
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score1.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.42
Lead Points Retention-0.34
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score4.03
Rest days-0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Current Team ELO-44.20
Current Opponent ELO44.20
Current ELO Difference-88.40
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
ACV
W
Excelsior '310–3ACV7 Nov · away
Pick: Excelsior '31 49% · missed D
ACV1–1Dovo24 Oct · home
Pick: ACV 50% · missed W
Hoogeveen1–4ACV17 Oct · away
Pick: ACV 46% · hit D
ACV1–1DVS 33 Ermelo29 Aug · home
Pick: ACV 52% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
ADO '20
W
ADO '202–1Harkemase Boys7 Nov · home
Pick: Harkemase Boys 43% · missed D
SC Genemuiden2–2ADO '2024 Oct · away
Pick: SC Genemuiden 59% · missed W
Sportlust '461–3ADO '2017 Oct · away
Pick: Sportlust '46 49% · missed D
ADO '200–0Staphorst29 Aug · home
Pick: ADO '20 55% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
ACV and ADO '20 meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: ACV win 50.2%, draw 21.3%, ADO '20 win 28.5%. The pick is ACV win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.