Noordwijk vs UNA
Match result probability Model pick: Noordwijk win
Noordwijk winPick
57.9%
Draw
19.4%
UNA win
22.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.3%
No41.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%
How much we know
Noordwijk history57 matches
UNA history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Noordwijk
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Noordwijk are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Noordwijk are rated 59 Elo points higher
Elo 1,511 against 1,453. On rating alone Noordwijk would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Noordwijk score more
1.91 goals a game over 57 matches for Noordwijk, against 1.44 over 52 for UNA.
-
Defences are close
Noordwijk concede 1.70 a game, UNA 1.65.
-
Noordwijk games more often go over 2.5 goals
75% of Noordwijk matches, against 60% for UNA. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1511.2
ELO
1452.6
57
ELO · Matches
52
1511.2
Current Team ELO
1452.6
1452.6
Current Opponent ELO
1511.2
58.54
Current ELO Difference
-58.54
0.58
Expected score
0.42
57
History Matches
52
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.87
Overperformance
46.48
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
2.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
52
1.40
PPG
1.17
40.4%
Win rate
30.8%
19.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
40.4%
Loss rate
44.2%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
75.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.6%
56.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.5%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
27
1.66
PPG
1.41
48.3%
Win rate
40.7%
20.7%
Draw rate
18.5%
31.0%
Loss rate
40.7%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
82.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
65.5%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.91
Goals for per game
1.44
82.5%
Scoring rate
82.7%
68.4%
BTTS rate
67.3%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.63
93.1%
Scoring rate
92.6%
79.3%
BTTS rate
77.8%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
52
1.91
Goals Mean
1.44
1.47
Goals Std
1.03
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.7%
50.9%
Scored 2+ rate
44.2%
35.1%
Scored 3+ rate
11.5%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.70
Goals against per game
1.65
80.7%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.81
82.8%
Conceding rate
81.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
52
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.14
Conceded Std
1.25
61.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.9%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.2%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
19.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.3%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.3%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
19.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
52
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.70
4.43
Stability score
2.60
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
46
17
Lead Matches
18
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.61
19
Trailing Matches
13
26.3%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.36
Portability PPG Range
0.38
73.33
Portability Score
72.34
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO58.54
PPG0.23
GF0.47
GA0.05
PPG2.00
PPG0.25
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.2%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.44
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate6.6%
Scored 3+ rate23.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Conceded 2+ rate9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score1.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate3.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score0.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO58.54
Current Opponent ELO-58.54
Current ELO Difference117.1
Expected score0.17
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Noordwijk
W
Dongen0–1Noordwijk7 Nov · away
Pick: Noordwijk 39% · hit L
GVVV Veenendaal3–0Noordwijk29 Oct · away
Pick: GVVV Veenendaal 47% · hit W
Noordwijk3–2GOES24 Oct · home
Pick: Noordwijk 61% · hit W
Rijnvogels0–3Noordwijk17 Oct · away
Pick: Noordwijk 42% · hit W
Noordwijk1–0Roosendaal29 Aug · home
Pick: Noordwijk 62% · hit UNA
W
Groene Ster1–3UNA25 Oct · away
Pick: UNA 51% · hit L
UNA0–2UDI '1918 Oct · home
Pick: UNA 48% · missed D
Blauw Geel1–1UNA4 Oct · away
Pick: Blauw Geel 39% · missed W
UNA4–1EVV30 Aug · home
Pick: UNA 69% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Noordwijk and UNA meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Noordwijk win 57.9%, draw 19.4%, UNA win 22.7%. The pick is Noordwijk win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.5%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.