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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Excelsior Maassluis vs Rijnvogels

Excelsior Maassluis Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rijnvogels Away · Elo 1,544
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Excelsior Maassluis win
Excelsior Maassluis winPick
50.3%
Draw
23.4%
Rijnvogels win
26.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.0%
No45.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%

How much we know

Excelsior Maassluis history65 matches
Rijnvogels history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Excelsior Maassluis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rijnvogels are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,544 against 1,505. On rating alone Rijnvogels would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Rijnvogels score more

    1.40 goals a game over 65 matches for Excelsior Maassluis, against 1.77 over 56 for Rijnvogels.

  • Defences are close

    Excelsior Maassluis concede 1.43 a game, Rijnvogels 1.57.

  • Rijnvogels games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Excelsior Maassluis matches, against 68% for Rijnvogels. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Excelsior Maassluis
Rijnvogels@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.9
ELO
1544.5
65
ELO · Matches
56
1504.9
Current Team ELO
1544.5
1544.5
Current Opponent ELO
1504.9
-39.53
Current ELO Difference
39.53
0.44
Expected score
0.56
65
History Matches
56
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.44
Overperformance
53.09
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
56
1.32
PPG
1.59
36.9%
Win rate
46.4%
21.5%
Draw rate
19.6%
41.5%
Loss rate
33.9%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
67.9%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
46.4%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
27
1.70
PPG
1.48
51.5%
Win rate
40.7%
15.2%
Draw rate
25.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
70.4%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
48.1%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
33
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.77
70.8%
Scoring rate
80.4%
47.7%
BTTS rate
60.7%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.59
72.7%
Scoring rate
85.2%
39.4%
BTTS rate
74.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
56
1.40
Goals Mean
1.77
1.32
Goals Std
1.41
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
36.9%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.57
70.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.78
57.6%
Conceding rate
85.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
56
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.42
Conceded Std
1.39
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.4%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
56
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
2.16
Goal Difference Std
2.10
3.20
Stability score
5.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
46
20
Lead Matches
15
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.80
19
Trailing Matches
13
15.8%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
41
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.74
1.98
Portability PPG Range
1.85
39.56
Portability Score
40.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-39.53
PPG-0.27
GF-0.37
GA-0.14
PPG1.00
PPG0.22
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate9.6%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate27.6%
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches9
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-1.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate11.7%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-0.81
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-39.53
Current Opponent ELO39.53
Current ELO Difference-79.05
Expected score-0.11
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Excelsior Maassluis

L
Gemert3–1Excelsior Maassluis7 Nov · away
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 38% · missed
L
Excelsior Maassluis0–2Heerenveen28 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 48% · missed
W
Excelsior Maassluis1–0EVV24 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 78% · hit
W
Zwaluwen0–2Excelsior Maassluis17 Oct · away
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 56% · hit
L
FC Lisse1–0Excelsior Maassluis29 Aug · away
Pick: FC Lisse 54% · hit

Rijnvogels

D
Rijnvogels3–3Roosendaal7 Nov · home
Pick: Rijnvogels 50% · missed
W
Achilles Veen1–4Rijnvogels24 Oct · away
Pick: Rijnvogels 65% · hit
L
Rijnvogels0–3Noordwijk17 Oct · home
Pick: Noordwijk 42% · hit
W
GOES1–4Rijnvogels30 Aug · away
Pick: GOES 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Excelsior Maassluis and Rijnvogels meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Excelsior Maassluis win 50.3%, draw 23.4%, Rijnvogels win 26.3%. The pick is Excelsior Maassluis win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.5%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.