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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

FC Lisse vs Poortugaal

FC Lisse Home · Elo 1,602
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Poortugaal Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Lisse win
FC Lisse winPick
71.1%
Draw
15.5%
Poortugaal win
13.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%

How much we know

FC Lisse history55 matches
Poortugaal history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.1%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why FC Lisse are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Lisse are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,602 against 1,503. On rating alone FC Lisse would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • FC Lisse score more

    1.85 goals a game over 55 matches for FC Lisse, against 1.50 over 2 for Poortugaal.

  • Defences are close

    FC Lisse concede 1.11 a game, Poortugaal 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of FC Lisse matches, against 50% for Poortugaal. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Lisse
Poortugaal@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1601.9
ELO
1502.7
55
ELO · Matches
2
1601.9
Current Team ELO
1502.7
1502.7
Current Opponent ELO
1601.9
99.24
Current ELO Difference
-99.24
0.64
Expected score
0.36
55
History Matches
2
0.11
Residual Mean
0.07
57.82
Overperformance
50.62
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
2.40
PPG
1.50
2.60
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
10
Matches
2
2.10
PPG
1.50
2.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
2
1.84
PPG
1.50
54.5%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
1
1.94
PPG
3.00
59.4%
Win rate
100.0%
15.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
32
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.50
81.8%
Scoring rate
50.0%
52.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
78.1%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.6%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
2
1.85
Goals Mean
1.50
1.39
Goals Std
1.50
81.8%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
56.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
29.1%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.00
67.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.00
59.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
2
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.11
Conceded Std
0.00
29.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
2
0.91
Result entropy
0.63
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.50
8.90
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
1
20
Lead Matches
0
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.92
Lead Points Retention
—
10
Trailing Matches
1
30.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.85
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
0
2.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.21
Portability PPG Std
—
0.43
Portability PPG Range
—
70.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO99.24
PPG0.34
GF0.35
GA0.11
PPG1.50
PPG-1.06
PPG0.90
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches53
Clean-sheet rate32.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches31
Clean-sheet rate40.6%
Failed-to-score rate21.9%
History Matches53
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate31.8%
Scored 2+ rate6.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches53
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std1.11
Clean-sheet rate32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate29.1%
Conceded 3+ rate7.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.19
History Matches53
Result entropy0.28
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score-28.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches45
Lead Matches20
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate30.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches45
First Half Goals For Mean0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.61
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches30
Long Rest History Matches22
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.35
Current Team ELO99.24
Current Opponent ELO-99.24
Current ELO Difference198.5
Expected score0.28
History Matches53
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance7.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Lisse

W
GOES2–6FC Lisse18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Lisse 60% · hit
W
Gemert0–2FC Lisse4 Oct · away
Pick: FC Lisse 42% · hit
L
SC Genemuiden2–1FC Lisse1 Sep · away
Pick: FC Lisse 42% · missed
W
FC Lisse1–0Excelsior Maassluis29 Aug · home
Pick: FC Lisse 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Poortugaal

W
Poortugaal5–0Groene Ster7 Nov · home
Pick: Poortugaal 56% · hit
W
UDI '192–3Poortugaal24 Oct · away
Pick: UDI '19 54% · missed
W
Blauw Geel1–3Poortugaal17 Oct · away
Pick: Blauw Geel 45% · missed
L
Achilles Veen4–2Poortugaal1 Sep · away
Pick: Poortugaal 48% · missed
W
Poortugaal3–1Zwaluwen29 Aug · home
Pick: Poortugaal 56% · hit

About this match

FC Lisse and Poortugaal meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: FC Lisse win 71.1%, draw 15.5%, Poortugaal win 13.3%. The pick is FC Lisse win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.5%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.