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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Eemdijk vs SVZW

Eemdijk Home · Elo 1,487
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
SVZW Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Eemdijk win
Eemdijk winPick
60.0%
Draw
14.1%
SVZW win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.0%
No40.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.1%
Under 2.525.9%

How much we know

Eemdijk history56 matches
SVZW history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.0%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Eemdijk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,487 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.86 goals a game over 56 matches for Eemdijk, against 2.00 over 2 for SVZW.

  • Eemdijk concede fewer

    Eemdijk concede 1.98 a game, SVZW 2.50.

  • Eemdijk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    77% of Eemdijk matches, against 50% for SVZW. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eemdijk
SVZW@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.9
ELO
1490.6
56
ELO · Matches
2
1486.9
Current Team ELO
1490.6
1490.6
Current Opponent ELO
1486.9
-3.78
Current ELO Difference
3.78
0.49
Expected score
0.51
56
History Matches
2
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.23
49.45
Overperformance
47.87
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
1.80
PPG
0.50
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.50
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
1.30
PPG
0.50
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
1.90
Goals against per game
2.50
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
2
1.30
PPG
0.50
37.5%
Win rate
0.0%
17.9%
Draw rate
50.0%
44.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
76.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
1
1.24
PPG
0.00
34.5%
Win rate
0.0%
20.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
44.8%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
82.8%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
62.1%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
29
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
2.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
73.2%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.14
Goals for per game
3.00
93.1%
Scoring rate
100.0%
89.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
2
1.86
Goals Mean
2.00
1.30
Goals Std
1.00
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.98
Goals against per game
2.50
87.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.21
Goals against per game
4.00
96.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
2
1.98
Conceded Mean
2.50
1.48
Conceded Std
1.50
53.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
33.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
2.21
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
3.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
3.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
2
0.94
Result entropy
0.63
2.08
Goal Difference Std
0.50
5.75
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
1
9
Lead Matches
0
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.78
Lead Points Retention
—
19
Trailing Matches
0
5.3%
Non-loss rate
—
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
2.00
1.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
3.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
84.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
34
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
3.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.50
Portability PPG Std
—
1.21
Portability PPG Range
—
50.05
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-3.78
PPG0.80
GF-0.14
GA-0.52
PPG1.00
PPG1.24
PPG1.30
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches54
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches54
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate12.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.30
Venue Goals Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches54
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-1.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches54
Result entropy0.31
Goal Difference Std1.58
Stability score-31.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.41
Eligible Matches41
Lead Matches9
Trailing Matches19
Halftime Coverage Matches41
First Half Goals For Mean-0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.60
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches34
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO-3.78
Current Opponent ELO3.78
Current ELO Difference-7.55
Expected score-0.01
History Matches54
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance1.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eemdijk

W
Staphorst1–3Eemdijk7 Nov · away
Pick: Eemdijk 49% · hit
L
Eemdijk0–1Hollandia31 Oct · home
Pick: Eemdijk 62% · missed
L
Quick Boys4–0Eemdijk28 Oct · away
Pick: Quick Boys 62% · hit
W
Eemdijk3–1Sportlust '4623 Oct · home
Pick: Eemdijk 40% · hit
W
Eemdijk2–0Hercules17 Oct · home
Pick: Eemdijk 52% · hit

SVZW

L
SVZW2–3Hercules7 Nov · home
Pick: SVZW 46% · missed
L
DVS 33 Ermelo4–3SVZW24 Oct · away
Pick: DVS 33 Ermelo 57% · hit
L
SVZW0–1Hollandia17 Oct · home
Pick: SVZW 45% · missed
L
Excelsior '314–0SVZW29 Aug · away
Pick: Excelsior '31 72% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Eemdijk and SVZW meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Eemdijk win 60.0%, draw 14.1%, SVZW win 25.8%. The pick is Eemdijk win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.1%. Both teams to score: 60.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.