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League One Scotland Round 15 2026

Airdrie United vs Queen of the South

Airdrie United Home · Elo 1,429
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Queen of the South Away · Elo 1,484
Albert Bartlett Stadium, Airdrie Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Airdrie United win
Airdrie United winPick
43.6%
Draw
25.7%
Queen of the South win
30.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%

How much we know

Airdrie United history83 matches
Queen of the South history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Airdrie United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Queen of the South are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,484 against 1,429. On rating alone Queen of the South would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Queen of the South score more

    1.23 goals a game over 83 matches for Airdrie United, against 1.50 over 78 for Queen of the South.

  • Defences are close

    Airdrie United concede 1.45 a game, Queen of the South 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Airdrie United matches, against 54% for Queen of the South. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Airdrie United
Queen of the South@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1428.5
ELO
1484.4
83
ELO · Matches
78
1428.5
Current Team ELO
1484.4
1484.4
Current Opponent ELO
1428.5
-55.83
Current ELO Difference
55.83
0.42
Expected score
0.58
83
History Matches
78
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.01
Overperformance
49.57
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.30
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
78
1.17
PPG
1.36
28.9%
Win rate
37.2%
30.1%
Draw rate
24.4%
41.0%
Loss rate
38.5%
74.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
57.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
37
1.16
PPG
1.08
27.3%
Win rate
27.0%
34.1%
Draw rate
27.0%
38.6%
Loss rate
45.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
61.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
44
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.50
67.5%
Scoring rate
76.9%
54.2%
BTTS rate
59.0%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.30
70.5%
Scoring rate
75.7%
59.1%
BTTS rate
62.2%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.33
50.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
83
History Matches
78
1.23
Goals Mean
1.50
1.15
Goals Std
1.28
67.5%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
36.1%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
21.8%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.36
78.3%
Conceding rate
78.2%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.46
79.5%
Conceding rate
81.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
83
History Matches
78
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.18
Conceded Std
1.12
38.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
19.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.4%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
78
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.90
1.17
Stability score
1.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
78
20
Lead Matches
22
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.80
27
Trailing Matches
27
14.8%
Non-loss rate
18.5%
3.7%
Trailing Win Rate
3.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
63
Normal Rest History Matches
67
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
14
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
0.50
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
4
Current Competition Matches
3
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.33
11
Competition Season Count
11
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.92
Portability PPG Range
1.64
42.74
Portability Score
45.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-55.83
PPG-0.19
GF-0.27
GA0.09
PPG0.50
PPG0.08
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate9.5%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate2.7%
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-0.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.83
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-3.23
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.60
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO-55.83
Current Opponent ELO55.83
Current ELO Difference-111.7
Expected score-0.16
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Airdrie United

W
Alloa Athletic2–3Airdrie United7 Nov · away
Pick: Alloa Athletic 49% · missed
W
Airdrie United5–0Elgin City3 Nov · home
Pick: Elgin City 39% · missed
L
Airdrie United0–1Cove Rangers31 Oct · home
Pick: Cove Rangers 44% · hit
L
Ross County4–0Airdrie United24 Oct · away
Pick: Ross County 61% · hit
L
Airdrie United1–2Hamilton Academical17 Oct · home
Pick: Hamilton Academical 56% · hit

Queen of the South

L
Queen of the South1–2East Kilbride7 Nov · home
Pick: East Kilbride 49% · hit
L
Arbroath1–0Queen of the South3 Nov · away
Pick: Arbroath 39% · hit
L
East Fife2–0Queen of the South31 Oct · away
Pick: East Fife 45% · hit
W
Alloa Athletic0–1Queen of the South24 Oct · away
Pick: Alloa Athletic 51% · missed
L
Queen of the South1–7Ross County17 Oct · home
Pick: Ross County 43% · hit

About this match

Airdrie United and Queen of the South meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Albert Bartlett Stadium, Airdrie. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Airdrie United win 43.6%, draw 25.7%, Queen of the South win 30.7%. The pick is Airdrie United win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.