ScoreProb
Log in
League One Scotland Round 15 2026

Cove Rangers vs Montrose

Cove Rangers Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Montrose Away · Elo 1,503
Balmoral Stadium, Aberdeen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cove Rangers win
Cove Rangers winPick
44.0%
Draw
21.8%
Montrose win
34.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Cove Rangers history85 matches
Montrose history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Cove Rangers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Montrose are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,503 against 1,452. On rating alone Montrose would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Montrose score more

    1.28 goals a game over 85 matches for Cove Rangers, against 1.53 over 79 for Montrose.

  • Cove Rangers concede fewer

    Cove Rangers concede 1.35 a game, Montrose 1.72.

  • Montrose games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Cove Rangers matches, against 66% for Montrose. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cove Rangers
Montrose@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.4
ELO
1503.5
85
ELO · Matches
79
1452.4
Current Team ELO
1503.5
1503.5
Current Opponent ELO
1452.4
-51.07
Current ELO Difference
51.07
0.43
Expected score
0.57
85
History Matches
79
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.75
Overperformance
50.85
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
79
1.21
PPG
1.33
30.6%
Win rate
36.7%
29.4%
Draw rate
22.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.5%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.9%
50.6%
Over 2.5 rate
65.8%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
48
Matches
36
1.40
PPG
1.06
35.4%
Win rate
25.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
30.6%
31.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
48
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.53
63.5%
Scoring rate
75.9%
50.6%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.31
68.8%
Scoring rate
83.3%
56.3%
BTTS rate
69.4%
0.75
Goals for per game
1.00
25.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
85
History Matches
79
1.28
Goals Mean
1.53
1.32
Goals Std
1.38
63.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
41.8%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
22.8%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.72
76.5%
Conceding rate
82.3%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
85
History Matches
79
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.72
1.11
Conceded Std
1.25
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.2%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.3%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
79
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.78
Goal Difference Std
2.08
0.89
Stability score
2.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
79
23
Lead Matches
29
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
72.4%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.80
29
Trailing Matches
30
31.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
6.9%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
74
Normal Rest History Matches
65
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
7
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.75
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.96
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
11
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.63
60.54
Portability Score
44.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-51.07
PPG-0.12
GF-0.25
GA-0.37
PPG0.25
PPG0.34
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate12.4%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate14.6%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score-1.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate11.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score16.15
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO-51.07
Current Opponent ELO51.07
Current ELO Difference-102.1
Expected score-0.15
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cove Rangers

W
Cove Rangers4–0Hamilton Academical7 Nov · home
Pick: Hamilton Academical 55% · missed
W
Formartine United0–2Cove Rangers3 Nov · away
Pick: Formartine United 48% · missed
W
Airdrie United0–1Cove Rangers31 Oct · away
Pick: Cove Rangers 44% · hit
L
Peterhead2–0Cove Rangers17 Oct · away
Pick: Peterhead 46% · hit
W
Cove Rangers2–1Formartine United13 Oct · home
Pick: Formartine United 46% · missed

Montrose

L
Montrose1–2East Fife7 Nov · home
Pick: East Fife 43% · hit
L
Inverness CT1–0Montrose3 Nov · away
Pick: Inverness CT 56% · hit
D
Hamilton Academical1–1Montrose31 Oct · away
Pick: Hamilton Academical 62% · missed
W
Montrose3–0Peterhead24 Oct · home
Pick: Montrose 40% · hit
D
East Kilbride1–1Montrose17 Oct · away
Pick: East Kilbride 59% · missed

About this match

Cove Rangers and Montrose meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Balmoral Stadium, Aberdeen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Cove Rangers win 44.0%, draw 21.8%, Montrose win 34.2%. The pick is Cove Rangers win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.