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League One Scotland Round 15 2026

East Kilbride vs Alloa Athletic

East Kilbride Home · Elo 1,590
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alloa Athletic Away · Elo 1,520
K-Park Training Academy, East Kilbride Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: East Kilbride win
East Kilbride winPick
41.4%
Draw
25.9%
Alloa Athletic win
32.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.3%
No36.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.6%
Under 2.532.4%

How much we know

East Kilbride history75 matches
Alloa Athletic history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why East Kilbride are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • East Kilbride are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,520. On rating alone East Kilbride would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • East Kilbride score more

    2.36 goals a game over 75 matches for East Kilbride, against 1.65 over 79 for Alloa Athletic.

  • Alloa Athletic concede fewer

    East Kilbride concede 1.53 a game, Alloa Athletic 1.33.

  • East Kilbride games more often go over 2.5 goals

    77% of East Kilbride matches, against 57% for Alloa Athletic. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
East Kilbride
Alloa Athletic@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.4
ELO
1520.0
75
ELO · Matches
79
1590.4
Current Team ELO
1520.0
1520.0
Current Opponent ELO
1590.4
70.46
Current ELO Difference
-70.46
0.60
Expected score
0.40
75
History Matches
79
0.06
Residual Mean
0.01
54.74
Overperformance
51.19
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.50
3.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.61
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
79
1.88
PPG
1.56
57.3%
Win rate
45.6%
16.0%
Draw rate
19.0%
26.7%
Loss rate
35.4%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
77.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.0%
57.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
38
2.10
PPG
1.34
66.7%
Win rate
39.5%
10.3%
Draw rate
15.8%
23.1%
Loss rate
44.7%
97.4%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
64.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
39
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.36
Goals for per game
1.65
89.3%
Scoring rate
82.3%
68.0%
BTTS rate
55.7%
2.62
Goals for per game
1.39
92.3%
Scoring rate
76.3%
64.1%
BTTS rate
55.3%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
75
History Matches
79
2.36
Goals Mean
1.65
1.58
Goals Std
1.25
89.3%
Scored 1+ rate
82.3%
65.3%
Scored 2+ rate
49.4%
46.7%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
2.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.33
77.3%
Conceding rate
69.6%
1.49
Goals against per game
1.39
71.8%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
0.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
75
History Matches
79
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.35
Conceded Std
1.27
41.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.2%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.49
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
79
0.88
Result entropy
0.95
2.33
Goal Difference Std
1.68
12.20
Stability score
5.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
79
36
Lead Matches
26
80.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.81
19
Trailing Matches
27
26.3%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
18.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
1.15
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
60
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
13
Long Rest History Matches
8
2.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
12
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.59
Portability PPG Range
1.90
70.21
Portability Score
46.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO70.46
PPG0.32
GF0.71
GA0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.76
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate16.0%
Scored 3+ rate27.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate7.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.65
Stability score6.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate3.6%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-1.31
Portability Score23.87
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO70.46
Current Opponent ELO-70.46
Current ELO Difference140.9
Expected score0.20
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

East Kilbride

W
Queen of the South1–2East Kilbride7 Nov · away
Pick: East Kilbride 49% · hit
W
East Kilbride7–3Stirling Albion3 Nov · home
Pick: East Kilbride 52% · hit
L
East Kilbride1–2Ross County31 Oct · home
Pick: East Kilbride 40% · missed
D
East Kilbride1–1Montrose17 Oct · home
Pick: East Kilbride 59% · missed
W
East Kilbride2–1Kelty Hearts13 Oct · home
Pick: East Kilbride 62% · hit

Alloa Athletic

L
Alloa Athletic2–3Airdrie United7 Nov · home
Pick: Alloa Athletic 49% · missed
L
Clydebank1–0Alloa Athletic3 Nov · away
Pick: Clydebank 40% · hit
L
Peterhead2–1Alloa Athletic31 Oct · away
Pick: Alloa Athletic 46% · missed
L
Alloa Athletic0–1Queen of the South24 Oct · home
Pick: Alloa Athletic 51% · missed
W
East Fife0–3Alloa Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Alloa Athletic 48% · hit

About this match

East Kilbride and Alloa Athletic meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at K-Park Training Academy, East Kilbride. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: East Kilbride win 41.4%, draw 25.9%, Alloa Athletic win 32.7%. The pick is East Kilbride win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.6%. Both teams to score: 63.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.