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League One Scotland Round 15 2026

Hamilton Academical vs Ross County

Hamilton Academical Home · Elo 1,540
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ross County Away · Elo 1,570
ZLX Stadium, Hamilton Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hamilton Academical win
Hamilton Academical winPick
46.9%
Draw
24.6%
Ross County win
28.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

Hamilton Academical history82 matches
Ross County history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Hamilton Academical are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ross County are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,570 against 1,540. On rating alone Ross County would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.45 goals a game over 82 matches for Hamilton Academical, against 1.45 over 74 for Ross County.

  • Defences are close

    Hamilton Academical concede 1.34 a game, Ross County 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Hamilton Academical matches, against 54% for Ross County. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hamilton Academical
Ross County@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1540.1
ELO
1570.5
82
ELO · Matches
74
1540.1
Current Team ELO
1570.5
1570.5
Current Opponent ELO
1540.1
-30.40
Current ELO Difference
30.40
0.46
Expected score
0.54
82
History Matches
74
0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
52.05
Overperformance
53.02
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
3.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.30
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
74
1.40
PPG
1.31
40.2%
Win rate
36.5%
19.5%
Draw rate
21.6%
40.2%
Loss rate
41.9%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
42
1.46
PPG
1.26
43.9%
Win rate
33.3%
14.6%
Draw rate
26.2%
41.5%
Loss rate
40.5%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
41
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.45
69.5%
Scoring rate
68.9%
43.9%
BTTS rate
45.9%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.24
68.3%
Scoring rate
64.3%
39.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
82
History Matches
74
1.45
Goals Mean
1.45
1.37
Goals Std
1.48
69.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
40.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.9%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.34
Goals against per game
1.36
67.1%
Conceding rate
71.6%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.33
63.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.67
0.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
82
History Matches
74
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.25
Conceded Std
1.26
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.8%
18.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.9%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
74
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
2.10
Goal Difference Std
2.20
4.29
Stability score
3.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
73
29
Lead Matches
24
82.8%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.75
18
Trailing Matches
23
5.6%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.95
Rest days
80.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
70
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.34
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
6
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
2.50
PPG
3.00
75.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
4
Current Competition Matches
3
2.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
10
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.85
1.75
Portability PPG Range
2.25
48.42
Portability Score
37.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-30.40
PPG0.09
GF0.01
GA-0.02
PPG-0.50
PPG0.20
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate0.6%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std1.04
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Conceded 2+ rate3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score1.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.24
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate16.1%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.17
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score11.32
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO-30.40
Current Opponent ELO30.40
Current ELO Difference-60.79
Expected score-0.09
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hamilton Academical

L
Cove Rangers4–0Hamilton Academical7 Nov · away
Pick: Hamilton Academical 55% · missed
D
Hamilton Academical1–1Montrose31 Oct · home
Pick: Hamilton Academical 62% · missed
D
Ross County1–1Hamilton Academical27 Oct · away
Pick: Hamilton Academical 45% · missed
W
Hamilton Academical2–1East Fife24 Oct · home
Pick: Hamilton Academical 62% · hit
W
Airdrie United1–2Hamilton Academical17 Oct · away
Pick: Hamilton Academical 56% · hit

Ross County

W
Ross County4–1Peterhead7 Nov · home
Pick: Ross County 56% · hit
W
Ross County2–0Celtic II3 Nov · home
Pick: Ross County 69% · hit
W
East Kilbride1–2Ross County31 Oct · away
Pick: East Kilbride 40% · missed
D
Ross County1–1Hamilton Academical27 Oct · home
Pick: Hamilton Academical 45% · missed
W
Ross County4–0Airdrie United24 Oct · home
Pick: Ross County 61% · hit

About this match

Hamilton Academical and Ross County meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at ZLX Stadium, Hamilton. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Hamilton Academical win 46.9%, draw 24.6%, Ross County win 28.6%. The pick is Hamilton Academical win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.