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League One Scotland Round 15 2026

East Fife vs Peterhead

East Fife Home · Elo 1,471
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Peterhead Away · Elo 1,507
MGM Timber Bayview Stadium, Methil Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: East Fife win
East Fife winPick
39.7%
Draw
25.6%
Peterhead win
34.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%
No47.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%

How much we know

East Fife history77 matches
Peterhead history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why East Fife are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Peterhead are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,507 against 1,471. On rating alone Peterhead would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Peterhead score more

    1.25 goals a game over 77 matches for East Fife, against 1.45 over 77 for Peterhead.

  • Defences are close

    East Fife concede 1.49 a game, Peterhead 1.53.

  • Peterhead games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of East Fife matches, against 64% for Peterhead. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
East Fife
Peterhead@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.4
ELO
1507.2
77
ELO · Matches
77
1471.4
Current Team ELO
1507.2
1507.2
Current Opponent ELO
1471.4
-35.76
Current ELO Difference
35.76
0.45
Expected score
0.55
77
History Matches
77
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
48.85
Overperformance
50.32
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
77
1.29
PPG
1.38
35.1%
Win rate
39.0%
23.4%
Draw rate
20.8%
41.6%
Loss rate
40.3%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.5%
49.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
24.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.7%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
39
1.65
PPG
1.18
47.5%
Win rate
33.3%
22.5%
Draw rate
17.9%
30.0%
Loss rate
48.7%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
40
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.45
67.5%
Scoring rate
72.7%
49.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.23
75.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
52.5%
BTTS rate
56.4%
0.75
Goals for per game
0.75
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
77
History Matches
77
1.25
Goals Mean
1.45
1.16
Goals Std
1.27
67.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.53
76.6%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.67
72.5%
Conceding rate
79.5%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.25
25.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
77
History Matches
77
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.34
Conceded Std
1.29
39.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.6%
19.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.5%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
77
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.02
2.41
Stability score
3.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
77
16
Lead Matches
25
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.89
32
Trailing Matches
25
25.0%
Non-loss rate
24.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
69
Normal Rest History Matches
67
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
6
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
9
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.85
1.00
Portability PPG Range
3.00
58.87
Portability Score
37.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-35.76
PPG-0.09
GF-0.21
GA-0.04
PPG-0.25
PPG0.47
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.70
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.70
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-1.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.38
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate1.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.50
Portability PPG Range-2.00
Portability Score21.72
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Current Team ELO-35.76
Current Opponent ELO35.76
Current ELO Difference-71.52
Expected score-0.10
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

East Fife

W
Montrose1–2East Fife7 Nov · away
Pick: East Fife 43% · hit
W
East Fife2–0Queen of the South31 Oct · home
Pick: East Fife 45% · hit
L
Hamilton Academical2–1East Fife24 Oct · away
Pick: Hamilton Academical 62% · hit
L
East Fife0–3Alloa Athletic17 Oct · home
Pick: Alloa Athletic 48% · hit
L
Cumbernauld Colts2–1East Fife13 Oct · away
Pick: East Fife 48% · missed

Peterhead

L
Ross County4–1Peterhead7 Nov · away
Pick: Ross County 56% · hit
W
St. Mirren U211–2Peterhead3 Nov · away
Pick: Peterhead 41% · hit
W
Peterhead2–1Alloa Athletic31 Oct · home
Pick: Alloa Athletic 46% · missed
L
Montrose3–0Peterhead24 Oct · away
Pick: Montrose 40% · hit
W
Peterhead2–0Cove Rangers17 Oct · home
Pick: Peterhead 46% · hit

About this match

East Fife and Peterhead meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at MGM Timber Bayview Stadium, Methil. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: East Fife win 39.7%, draw 25.6%, Peterhead win 34.7%. The pick is East Fife win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.4%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.