Albania vs Finland
Match result probability Model pick: Finland win
Albania win
34.9%
Draw
29.8%
Finland winPick
35.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.1%
No52.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%
How much we know
Albania history14 matches
Finland history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Finland
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.
Why Finland are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,494 against 1,489. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Finland score more
0.93 goals a game over 14 matches for Albania, against 1.14 over 14 for Finland.
-
Albania concede fewer
Albania concede 0.86 a game, Finland 1.57.
-
Finland games more often go over 2.5 goals
21% of Albania matches, against 57% for Finland. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Finland@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1493.9
ELO
1489.3
14
ELO · Matches
14
1493.9
Current Team ELO
1489.3
1489.3
Current Opponent ELO
1493.9
4.57
Current ELO Difference
-4.57
0.51
Expected score
0.49
14
History Matches
14
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.07
Overperformance
47.36
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
0.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
14
1.43
PPG
1.21
42.9%
Win rate
35.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
14.3%
42.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
42.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
21.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
7.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
9
1.43
PPG
0.89
42.9%
Win rate
22.2%
14.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
42.9%
Loss rate
55.6%
42.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
7
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.93
Goals for per game
1.14
57.1%
Scoring rate
64.3%
21.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.14
Goals for per game
0.89
42.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
14.3%
BTTS rate
44.4%
14
History Matches
14
0.93
Goals Mean
1.14
1.16
Goals Std
1.12
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
14.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.86
Goals against per game
1.57
57.1%
Conceding rate
78.6%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.89
57.1%
Conceding rate
77.8%
14
History Matches
14
0.86
Conceded Mean
1.57
0.83
Conceded Std
1.29
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
14
0.91
Result entropy
0.90
1.44
Goal Difference Std
2.13
8.59
Stability score
9.68
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
14
4
Lead Matches
6
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.78
2
Trailing Matches
7
0.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
159.1
Rest days
160.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
2
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.78
Portability PPG Std
—
1.56
Portability PPG Range
—
39.13
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO4.57
PPG0.21
GF-0.21
GA-0.71
PPG0.54
PPG-1.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Failed-to-score rate23.8%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.71
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-1.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.59
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.69
Stability score-1.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.11
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-1.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.50
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.67
Current Team ELO4.57
Current Opponent ELO-4.57
Current ELO Difference9.15
Expected score0.01
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance1.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Albania and Finland meet in UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Albania win 34.9%, draw 29.8%, Finland win 35.3%. The pick is Finland win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.