San Marino vs Belarus
Match result probability Model pick: Belarus win
San Marino win
19.9%
Draw
12.9%
Belarus winPick
67.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.5%
No48.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.571.7%
Under 2.528.3%
How much we know
San Marino history14 matches
Belarus history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Belarus
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.3%). Picks in that band won 63.7% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 1,884 matches.
Why Belarus are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Belarus are rated 123 Elo points higher
Elo 1,512 against 1,389. On rating alone Belarus would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.
-
Belarus score far more
0.43 goals a game over 14 matches for San Marino, against 1.79 over 14 for Belarus.
-
Belarus concede fewer
San Marino concede 3.50 a game, Belarus 1.86.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
71% of San Marino matches, against 71% for Belarus. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 9 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Belarus@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1388.8
ELO
1512.1
14
ELO · Matches
14
1388.8
Current Team ELO
1512.1
1512.1
Current Opponent ELO
1388.8
-123.2
Current ELO Difference
123.2
0.33
Expected score
0.67
14
History Matches
14
-0.39
Residual Mean
0.04
33.75
Overperformance
51.79
-0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.60
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.10
PPG
1.20
0.50
Goals for per game
1.30
3.70
Goals against per game
2.10
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
3.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
2.93
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.87
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.48
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
14
0.07
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
42.9%
7.1%
Draw rate
21.4%
92.9%
Loss rate
35.7%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
7
0.14
PPG
1.86
0.0%
Win rate
57.1%
14.3%
Draw rate
14.3%
85.7%
Loss rate
28.6%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
7
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.43
Goals for per game
1.79
42.9%
Scoring rate
78.6%
42.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
0.43
Goals for per game
2.00
42.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
14
History Matches
14
0.43
Goals Mean
1.79
0.49
Goals Std
1.52
42.9%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.4%
0.43
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
3.50
Goals against per game
1.86
92.9%
Conceding rate
71.4%
3.29
Goals against per game
1.43
85.7%
Conceding rate
57.1%
14
History Matches
14
3.50
Conceded Mean
1.86
2.64
Conceded Std
1.85
78.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
3.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
14
0.23
Result entropy
0.97
2.68
Goal Difference Std
2.87
76.58
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
14
0
Lead Matches
4
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
8
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
1.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.36
1.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
156.1
Rest days
156.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
6
Normal Rest History Matches
3
0.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.97
0.25
Portability PPG Range
2.17
80.00
Portability Score
34.06
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-123.2
PPG-1.43
GF-1.36
GA1.64
PPG-1.71
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate35.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate57.1%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-1.36
Goals Std-1.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.36
Scored 2+ rate-0.50
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-1.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.69
History Matches0
Conceded Mean1.64
Conceded Std0.79
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate28.6%
Venue Conceded Mean1.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.07
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.73
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score73.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.93
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.84
Portability PPG Range-1.92
Portability Score45.94
Rest days-0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Current Team ELO-123.2
Current Opponent ELO123.2
Current ELO Difference-246.5
Expected score-0.34
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.44
Overperformance-18.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
San Marino
L
Albania2–1San Marino6 Oct · away
Pick: Albania 74% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Belarus
W
Belarus1–0Finland6 Oct · home
Pick: Finland 46% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
San Marino and Belarus meet in UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: San Marino win 19.9%, draw 12.9%, Belarus win 67.3%. The pick is Belarus win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.7%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.