Italy vs France
Match result probability Model pick: France win
Italy win
29.9%
Draw
22.8%
France winPick
47.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.9%
No43.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%
How much we know
Italy history14 matches
France history22 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours France
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why France are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
France are rated 36 Elo points higher
Elo 1,593 against 1,557. On rating alone France would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
France score more
2.14 goals a game over 14 matches for Italy, against 2.41 over 22 for France.
-
Defences are close
Italy concede 1.29 a game, France 1.18.
-
France games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Italy matches, against 68% for France. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1556.8
ELO
1593.3
14
ELO · Matches
22
1556.8
Current Team ELO
1593.3
1593.3
Current Opponent ELO
1556.8
-36.43
Current ELO Difference
36.43
0.45
Expected score
0.55
14
History Matches
22
0.19
Residual Mean
0.22
57.82
Overperformance
61.49
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
2.10
2.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
80.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
22
2.07
PPG
2.23
64.3%
Win rate
72.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
4.5%
21.4%
Loss rate
22.7%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
95.5%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals 100
6
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.20
66.7%
Win rate
70.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
10.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
6
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.14
Goals for per game
2.41
92.9%
Scoring rate
90.9%
42.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
2.30
100.0%
Scoring rate
90.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
14
History Matches
22
2.14
Goals Mean
2.41
1.46
Goals Std
1.15
92.9%
Scored 1+ rate
90.9%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
81.8%
35.7%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
2.30
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.18
50.0%
Conceding rate
59.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
33.3%
Conceding rate
70.0%
14
History Matches
22
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.53
Conceded Std
1.56
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
22
0.81
Result entropy
0.65
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.76
18.80
Stability score
35.48
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
22
7
Lead Matches
11
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.91
2
Trailing Matches
5
50.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.64
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
158.0
Rest days
116.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.60
2
Normal Rest History Matches
9
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.33
6
Long Rest History Matches
7
2.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.14
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.42
—
Portability PPG Range
1.17
—
Portability Score
54.30
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
22
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-36.43
PPG-0.16
GF-0.27
GA0.10
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate36.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate1.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Conceded 2+ rate8.4%
Conceded 3+ rate19.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score-16.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.34
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate30.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days41.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO-36.43
Current Opponent ELO36.43
Current ELO Difference-72.87
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-3.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Italy and France meet in UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Italy win 29.9%, draw 22.8%, France win 47.4%. The pick is France win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.