Türkiye vs Belgium
Match result probability Model pick: Belgium win
Türkiye win
28.3%
Draw
26.6%
Belgium winPick
45.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.3%
No40.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.567.8%
Under 2.532.2%
How much we know
Türkiye history17 matches
Belgium history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Belgium
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Belgium are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,567 against 1,578. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Belgium score more
2.12 goals a game over 17 matches for Türkiye, against 2.95 over 20 for Belgium.
-
Belgium concede fewer
Türkiye concede 1.24 a game, Belgium 1.00.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
65% of Türkiye matches, against 65% for Belgium. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 11 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Belgium@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1566.5
ELO
1578.1
17
ELO · Matches
20
1566.5
Current Team ELO
1578.1
1578.1
Current Opponent ELO
1566.5
-11.62
Current ELO Difference
11.62
0.48
Expected score
0.52
17
History Matches
20
0.19
Residual Mean
0.19
58.64
Overperformance
59.26
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
1.90
Goals for per game
2.60
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.67
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals 90
17
Matches
20
2.18
PPG
2.00
70.6%
Win rate
55.0%
5.9%
Draw rate
35.0%
23.5%
Loss rate
10.0%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
55.0%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
Venue performance10 signals 100
8
Matches
11
2.25
PPG
1.91
75.0%
Win rate
54.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
18.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
62.5%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
2.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
8
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.12
Goals for per game
2.95
76.5%
Scoring rate
90.0%
47.1%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.13
Goals for per game
2.82
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
81.8%
17
History Matches
20
2.12
Goals Mean
2.95
1.64
Goals Std
2.16
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
90.0%
64.7%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
41.2%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
2.13
Venue Goals Mean
2.82
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.24
Goals against per game
1.00
70.6%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.27
62.5%
Conceding rate
81.8%
17
History Matches
20
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.39
Conceded Std
1.00
29.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
17
History Matches
20
0.69
Result entropy
0.84
2.45
Goal Difference Std
2.52
31.46
Stability score
15.67
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
17
Eligible Matches
20
7
Lead Matches
11
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.85
4
Trailing Matches
4
0.0%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
1.06
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.95
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
139.6
Rest days
124.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
7
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
7
Long Rest History Matches
7
2.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.38
Portability PPG Range
1.00
42.11
Portability Score
54.06
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
17
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-11.62
PPG0.18
GF-0.83
GA0.24
PPG0.34
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate13.5%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate25.0%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.83
Goals Std-0.52
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.48
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score15.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate18.2%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-1.00
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-11.95
Rest days14.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.71
Current Team ELO-11.62
Current Opponent ELO11.62
Current ELO Difference-23.24
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Türkiye and Belgium meet in UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Türkiye win 28.3%, draw 26.6%, Belgium win 45.1%. The pick is Belgium win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.8%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.