England vs Croatia
Match result probability Model pick: England win
England winPick
60.2%
Draw
20.2%
Croatia win
19.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.3%
No48.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.4%
Under 2.544.6%
How much we know
England history22 matches
Croatia history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours England
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.2%). Picks in that band won 63.7% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 1,884 matches.
Why England are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
England are rated 54 Elo points higher
Elo 1,605 against 1,551. On rating alone England would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
2.27 goals a game over 22 matches for England, against 2.18 over 17 for Croatia.
-
England concede fewer
England concede 0.77 a game, Croatia 1.12.
-
Croatia games more often go over 2.5 goals
50% of England matches, against 65% for Croatia. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Croatia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1604.5
ELO
1550.8
22
ELO · Matches
17
1604.5
Current Team ELO
1550.8
1550.8
Current Opponent ELO
1604.5
53.70
Current ELO Difference
-53.70
0.58
Expected score
0.42
22
History Matches
17
0.26
Residual Mean
0.14
63.68
Overperformance
56.55
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.80
2.30
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals 90
22
Matches
17
2.32
PPG
2.00
72.7%
Win rate
64.7%
13.6%
Draw rate
5.9%
13.6%
Loss rate
29.4%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
Venue performance10 signals 100
14
Matches
9
2.07
PPG
1.44
64.3%
Win rate
44.4%
14.3%
Draw rate
11.1%
21.4%
Loss rate
44.4%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.67
14
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.27
Goals for per game
2.18
90.9%
Scoring rate
82.4%
36.4%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.78
85.7%
Scoring rate
77.8%
35.7%
BTTS rate
44.4%
22
History Matches
17
2.27
Goals Mean
2.18
1.57
Goals Std
1.82
90.9%
Scored 1+ rate
82.4%
63.6%
Scored 2+ rate
58.8%
36.4%
Scored 3+ rate
35.3%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.77
Goals against per game
1.12
40.9%
Conceding rate
58.8%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.44
42.9%
Conceding rate
55.6%
22
History Matches
17
0.77
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.13
Conceded Std
1.18
22.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
59.1%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
59.1%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
59.1%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
22
History Matches
17
0.71
Result entropy
0.74
1.73
Goal Difference Std
2.44
29.46
Stability score
26.43
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
22
Eligible Matches
17
11
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
3
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.41
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
116.9
Rest days
132.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.40
13
Normal Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
6
Long Rest History Matches
7
2.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.74
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.75
48.84
Portability Score
40.45
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
22
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO53.70
PPG0.32
GF0.10
GA-0.34
PPG0.63
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate8.6%
Scored 2+ rate4.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.71
Stability score3.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score8.39
Rest days-15.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.60
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.24
Current Team ELO53.70
Current Opponent ELO-53.70
Current ELO Difference107.4
Expected score0.15
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance7.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
England and Croatia meet in UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: England win 60.2%, draw 20.2%, Croatia win 19.6%. The pick is England win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.4%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.