Czechia vs Spain
Match result probability Model pick: Spain win
Czechia win
26.4%
Draw
24.1%
Spain winPick
49.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.3%
No48.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%
How much we know
Czechia history17 matches
Spain history22 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Spain
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Spain are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Spain are rated 98 Elo points higher
Elo 1,619 against 1,521. On rating alone Spain would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Spain score more
1.76 goals a game over 17 matches for Czechia, against 2.36 over 22 for Spain.
-
Spain concede fewer
Czechia concede 1.18 a game, Spain 0.68.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
59% of Czechia matches, against 64% for Spain. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1520.6
ELO
1619.1
17
ELO · Matches
22
1520.6
Current Team ELO
1619.1
1619.1
Current Opponent ELO
1520.6
-98.49
Current ELO Difference
98.49
0.36
Expected score
0.64
17
History Matches
22
0.10
Residual Mean
0.29
54.46
Overperformance
64.99
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.70
1.30
Goals against per game
0.30
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals 90
17
Matches
22
1.71
PPG
2.27
47.1%
Win rate
63.6%
29.4%
Draw rate
36.4%
23.5%
Loss rate
0.0%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals 100
12
Matches
9
1.92
PPG
2.56
50.0%
Win rate
77.8%
41.7%
Draw rate
22.2%
8.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
12
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.76
Goals for per game
2.36
88.2%
Scoring rate
86.4%
58.8%
BTTS rate
36.4%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.67
83.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
58.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
17
History Matches
22
1.76
Goals Mean
2.36
1.44
Goals Std
1.55
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
86.4%
47.1%
Scored 2+ rate
72.7%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
40.9%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
2.67
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
0.68
64.7%
Conceding rate
36.4%
0.92
Goals against per game
0.56
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
17
History Matches
22
1.18
Conceded Mean
0.68
1.29
Conceded Std
1.06
29.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.7%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.5%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
0.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
63.6%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
63.6%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
63.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
17
History Matches
22
0.96
Result entropy
0.60
2.28
Goal Difference Std
1.72
3.96
Stability score
40.34
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
17
Eligible Matches
22
10
Lead Matches
14
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.90
2
Trailing Matches
0
50.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.36
0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.23
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
140.8
Rest days
116.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
5
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.27
7
Long Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.67
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.47
Portability PPG Range
1.17
40.54
Portability Score
52.28
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
17
Clean History Matches
22
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-98.49
PPG-0.57
GF-0.60
GA0.49
PPG-0.64
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate16.7%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.60
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate1.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.49
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Conceded 2+ rate6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.36
Goal Difference Std0.56
Stability score-36.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.97
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches2
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-11.74
Rest days24.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Current Team ELO-98.49
Current Opponent ELO98.49
Current ELO Difference-197.0
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-10.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Czechia and Spain meet in UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Czechia win 26.4%, draw 24.1%, Spain win 49.5%. The pick is Spain win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.5%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.