Armenia vs Cyprus
Match result probability Model pick: Cyprus win
Armenia win
24.6%
Draw
26.3%
Cyprus winPick
49.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.6%
No41.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%
How much we know
Armenia history13 matches
Cyprus history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Cyprus
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.2%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Cyprus are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Cyprus are rated 49 Elo points higher
Elo 1,478 against 1,429. On rating alone Cyprus would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Cyprus score far more
0.85 goals a game over 13 matches for Armenia, against 1.50 over 14 for Cyprus.
-
Cyprus concede fewer
Armenia concede 3.00 a game, Cyprus 1.50.
-
Armenia games more often go over 2.5 goals
62% of Armenia matches, against 50% for Cyprus. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 9 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cyprus@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1429.1
ELO
1478.3
13
ELO · Matches
14
1429.1
Current Team ELO
1478.3
1478.3
Current Opponent ELO
1429.1
-49.27
Current ELO Difference
49.27
0.43
Expected score
0.57
13
History Matches
14
-0.26
Residual Mean
-0.08
39.59
Overperformance
46.81
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.80
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
2.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals 90
13
Matches
14
0.46
PPG
1.14
7.7%
Win rate
28.6%
23.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
69.2%
Loss rate
42.9%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
7
0.71
PPG
1.14
14.3%
Win rate
28.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
57.1%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
7
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.85
Goals for per game
1.50
61.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
61.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.71
Goals for per game
1.43
57.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
42.9%
13
History Matches
14
0.85
Goals Mean
1.50
0.77
Goals Std
1.18
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
0.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
3.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.14
100.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
13
History Matches
14
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.50
2.42
Conceded Std
1.05
61.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
38.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
13
History Matches
14
0.72
Result entropy
0.98
2.48
Goal Difference Std
1.69
28.07
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
13
Eligible Matches
14
2
Lead Matches
4
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
0.83
6
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
156.1
Rest days
158.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
3
Normal Rest History Matches
3
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.75
85.71
Portability Score
57.14
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
13
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-49.27
PPG-0.68
GF-0.65
GA1.50
PPG-0.43
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate9.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.65
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.34
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean1.50
Conceded Std1.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate31.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.34
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.26
Goal Difference Std0.79
Stability score26.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.85
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.82
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score28.57
Rest days-2.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-49.27
Current Opponent ELO49.27
Current ELO Difference-98.55
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-7.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Armenia and Cyprus meet in UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Armenia win 24.6%, draw 26.3%, Cyprus win 49.2%. The pick is Cyprus win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.