Albinoleffe vs Union Brescia
Match result probability Model pick: Albinoleffe win
Albinoleffe winPick
35.3%
Draw
31.3%
Union Brescia win
33.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.4%
No52.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%
How much we know
Albinoleffe history60 matches
Union Brescia history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Albinoleffe
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Albinoleffe are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Union Brescia are rated 77 Elo points higher
Elo 1,587 against 1,511. On rating alone Union Brescia would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.35 goals a game over 60 matches for Albinoleffe, against 1.31 over 51 for Union Brescia.
-
Union Brescia concede fewer
Albinoleffe concede 1.33 a game, Union Brescia 0.76.
-
Albinoleffe games more often go over 2.5 goals
58% of Albinoleffe matches, against 35% for Union Brescia. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union Brescia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1510.7
ELO
1587.3
60
ELO · Matches
51
1510.7
Current Team ELO
1587.3
1587.3
Current Opponent ELO
1510.7
-76.65
Current ELO Difference
76.65
0.39
Expected score
0.61
60
History Matches
51
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
50.89
Overperformance
55.57
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals 90
60
Matches
51
1.40
PPG
1.78
38.3%
Win rate
49.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
31.4%
36.7%
Loss rate
19.6%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
15.7%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
27
1.61
PPG
1.67
48.4%
Win rate
44.4%
16.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
35.5%
Loss rate
22.2%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
25.9%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.31
78.3%
Scoring rate
72.5%
56.7%
BTTS rate
45.1%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.07
77.4%
Scoring rate
70.4%
45.2%
BTTS rate
37.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
51
1.35
Goals Mean
1.31
1.00
Goals Std
1.13
78.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.2%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.33
Goals against per game
0.76
71.7%
Conceding rate
56.9%
1.13
Goals against per game
0.78
64.5%
Conceding rate
51.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
51
1.33
Conceded Mean
0.76
1.21
Conceded Std
0.85
38.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
13.7%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.9%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
60
History Matches
51
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.45
1.51
Stability score
6.01
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
60
Eligible Matches
50
18
Lead Matches
14
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.93
18
Trailing Matches
9
27.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.77
Rest days
84.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
33
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
24
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.68
Portability PPG Range
0.75
64.16
Portability Score
61.92
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
60
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-76.65
PPG-0.38
GF0.04
GA0.57
PPG0.00
PPG-0.05
PPG0.80
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate5.8%
Scored 2+ rate0.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate24.6%
Conceded 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches9
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-4.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score2.23
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Current Team ELO-76.65
Current Opponent ELO76.65
Current ELO Difference-153.3
Expected score-0.22
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Albinoleffe
L
Trento2–1Albinoleffe7 Nov · away
Pick: Trento 43% · hit W
Albinoleffe3–2Pergolettese30 Oct · home
Pick: Albinoleffe 61% · hit D
Renate0–0Albinoleffe25 Oct · away
Pick: Renate 45% · missed D
Albinoleffe2–2Novara18 Oct · home
Pick: Albinoleffe 53% · missed D
Albinoleffe1–1Ospitaletto31 Aug · home
Pick: Albinoleffe 36% · missed Union Brescia
W
Union Brescia3–2Arzignano Valchiampo6 Nov · home
Pick: Union Brescia 49% · hit W
Folgore Caratese0–4Union Brescia1 Nov · away
Pick: Folgore Caratese 40% · missed L
Union Brescia1–2Cittadella28 Oct · home
Pick: Union Brescia 39% · missed W
Union Brescia2–1Cittadella24 Oct · home
Pick: Union Brescia 38% · hit L
Giana Erminio2–1Union Brescia19 Oct · away
Pick: Union Brescia 36% · missed About this match
Albinoleffe and Union Brescia meet in Serie C - Girone A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at AlbinoLeffe, Zanica. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Albinoleffe win 35.3%, draw 31.3%, Union Brescia win 33.3%. The pick is Albinoleffe win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.