Lumezzane vs Trento
Match result probability Model pick: Trento win
Lumezzane win
27.5%
Draw
28.9%
Trento winPick
43.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.1%
No49.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.3%
Under 2.552.7%
How much we know
Lumezzane history59 matches
Trento history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Trento
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 16:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Trento are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Trento are rated 38 Elo points higher
Elo 1,537 against 1,500. On rating alone Trento would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Trento score more
1.05 goals a game over 59 matches for Lumezzane, against 1.39 over 62 for Trento.
-
Defences are close
Lumezzane concede 1.19 a game, Trento 1.15.
-
Trento games more often go over 2.5 goals
36% of Lumezzane matches, against 48% for Trento. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trento@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1499.8
ELO
1537.5
59
ELO · Matches
62
1499.8
Current Team ELO
1537.5
1537.5
Current Opponent ELO
1499.8
-37.65
Current ELO Difference
37.65
0.45
Expected score
0.55
59
History Matches
62
0.00
Residual Mean
0.04
50.19
Overperformance
52.67
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
59
Matches
62
1.15
PPG
1.50
23.7%
Win rate
38.7%
44.1%
Draw rate
33.9%
32.2%
Loss rate
27.4%
67.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
35.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
29
1.23
PPG
1.21
26.7%
Win rate
31.0%
43.3%
Draw rate
27.6%
30.0%
Loss rate
41.4%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.05
Goals for per game
1.39
71.2%
Scoring rate
74.2%
54.2%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.17
80.0%
Scoring rate
65.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
55.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
62
1.05
Goals Mean
1.39
0.93
Goals Std
1.18
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.2%
23.7%
Scored 2+ rate
41.9%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.15
71.2%
Conceding rate
72.6%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.38
70.0%
Conceding rate
79.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
62
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.07
Conceded Std
0.91
33.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.9%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.1%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
59
History Matches
62
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.53
2.85
Stability score
0.89
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
59
Eligible Matches
62
15
Lead Matches
16
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.77
19
Trailing Matches
18
36.8%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.02
Rest days
82.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
20
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
9
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.90
Portability PPG Range
0.32
52.57
Portability Score
75.50
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
59
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-37.65
PPG-0.35
GF-0.34
GA0.04
PPG-3.00
PPG0.03
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score1.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate4.6%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-22.93
Rest days1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO-37.65
Current Opponent ELO37.65
Current ELO Difference-75.29
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lumezzane
W
Alcione0–1Lumezzane6 Nov · away
Pick: Alcione 50% · missed D
Lumezzane1–1Arzignano Valchiampo1 Nov · home
Pick: Arzignano Valchiampo 42% · missed L
Pergolettese2–1Lumezzane25 Oct · away
Pick: Pergolettese 38% · hit L
Athletic Carpi3–1Lumezzane17 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Carpi 37% · hit D
Juventus U230–0Lumezzane13 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus U23 55% · missed Trento
W
Trento2–1Albinoleffe7 Nov · home
Pick: Trento 43% · hit D
Ospitaletto0–0Trento31 Oct · away
Pick: Ospitaletto 46% · missed W
Trento2–1Juventus U2325 Oct · home
Pick: Trento 42% · hit W
Dolomiti Bellunesi0–3Trento19 Oct · away
Pick: Dolomiti Bellunesi 39% · missed D
Alcione2–2Trento4 Oct · away
Pick: Alcione 41% · missed About this match
Lumezzane and Trento meet in Serie C - Girone A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Tullio Saleri, Lumezzane. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Lumezzane win 27.5%, draw 28.9%, Trento win 43.6%. The pick is Trento win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.3%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.