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Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 14 2026

Renate vs Desenzano Calvina

Renate Home · Elo 1,565
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Desenzano Calvina Away · Elo 1,639
Mino Favini, Meda Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Desenzano Calvina win
Renate win
31.6%
Draw
27.9%
Desenzano Calvina winPick
40.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.4%
No53.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.9%
Under 2.558.1%

How much we know

Renate history65 matches
Desenzano Calvina history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Desenzano Calvina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Desenzano Calvina are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,639 against 1,565. On rating alone Desenzano Calvina would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.32 goals a game over 65 matches for Renate, against 1.45 over 55 for Desenzano Calvina.

  • Desenzano Calvina concede fewer

    Renate concede 1.03 a game, Desenzano Calvina 0.67.

  • Renate games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Renate matches, against 35% for Desenzano Calvina. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Renate
Desenzano Calvina@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1565.3
ELO
1639.2
65
ELO · Matches
55
1565.3
Current Team ELO
1639.2
1639.2
Current Opponent ELO
1565.3
-73.95
Current ELO Difference
73.95
0.40
Expected score
0.60
65
History Matches
55
0.05
Residual Mean
0.13
53.64
Overperformance
59.28
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
55
1.62
PPG
1.96
43.1%
Win rate
58.2%
32.3%
Draw rate
21.8%
24.6%
Loss rate
20.0%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
58.2%
47.7%
Over 2.5 rate
34.5%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
14.5%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
27
1.66
PPG
2.04
46.9%
Win rate
63.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
14.8%
28.1%
Loss rate
22.2%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
7.4%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
32
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.45
78.5%
Scoring rate
78.2%
55.4%
BTTS rate
38.2%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.37
78.1%
Scoring rate
77.8%
56.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
55
1.32
Goals Mean
1.45
0.99
Goals Std
1.23
78.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.37
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
0.67
67.7%
Conceding rate
52.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.56
68.8%
Conceding rate
44.4%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
55
1.03
Conceded Mean
0.67
0.93
Conceded Std
0.74
26.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.7%
9.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.3%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.3%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.88
1.34
Goal Difference Std
1.40
2.34
Stability score
11.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
55
27
Lead Matches
23
74.1%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.84
9
Trailing Matches
8
33.3%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.77
Rest days
82.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
16
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.69
Portability PPG Range
1.30
63.02
Portability Score
48.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-73.95
PPG-0.35
GF-0.13
GA0.36
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.38
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate0.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.70
History Matches10
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-9.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.61
Portability Score14.57
Rest days1.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.20
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Current Team ELO-73.95
Current Opponent ELO73.95
Current ELO Difference-147.9
Expected score-0.21
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Renate

W
Pergolettese2–3Renate7 Nov · away
Pick: Renate 37% · hit
W
Athletic Carpi0–5Renate1 Nov · away
Pick: Renate 34% · hit
D
Renate0–0Albinoleffe25 Oct · home
Pick: Renate 45% · missed
L
Juventus U232–1Renate19 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus U23 46% · hit
L
Renate0–1Cittadella31 Aug · home
Pick: Renate 41% · missed

Desenzano Calvina

L
Novara1–0Desenzano Calvina2 Nov · away
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 42% · missed
L
Desenzano Calvina0–1Dolomiti Bellunesi28 Oct · home
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 42% · missed
L
Desenzano Calvina1–2Giana Erminio25 Oct · home
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 57% · missed
L
Alcione4–1Desenzano Calvina18 Oct · away
Pick: Alcione 46% · hit
D
Desenzano Calvina0–0Trento31 Aug · home
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 44% · missed

About this match

Renate and Desenzano Calvina meet in Serie C - Girone A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Mino Favini, Meda. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Renate win 31.6%, draw 27.9%, Desenzano Calvina win 40.5%. The pick is Desenzano Calvina win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.9%. Both teams to score: 46.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.