ScoreProb
Log in
Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 14 2026

Arzignano Valchiampo vs Alcione

Arzignano Valchiampo Home · Elo 1,534
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alcione Away · Elo 1,470
Tommaso Dal Molin, Arzignano Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alcione win
Arzignano Valchiampo win
34.8%
Draw
29.1%
Alcione winPick
36.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.0%
No55.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.4%
Under 2.557.6%

How much we know

Arzignano Valchiampo history60 matches
Alcione history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Alcione are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arzignano Valchiampo are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,470. On rating alone Arzignano Valchiampo would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Arzignano Valchiampo score more

    1.23 goals a game over 60 matches for Arzignano Valchiampo, against 0.87 over 61 for Alcione.

  • Alcione concede fewer

    Arzignano Valchiampo concede 1.18 a game, Alcione 1.00.

  • Arzignano Valchiampo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Arzignano Valchiampo matches, against 23% for Alcione. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arzignano Valchiampo
Alcione@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.2
ELO
1470.2
60
ELO · Matches
61
1534.2
Current Team ELO
1470.2
1470.2
Current Opponent ELO
1534.2
63.99
Current ELO Difference
-63.99
0.59
Expected score
0.41
60
History Matches
61
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
52.12
Overperformance
47.91
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
0.90
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
0.60
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
61
1.50
PPG
1.18
43.3%
Win rate
29.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
29.5%
36.7%
Loss rate
41.0%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
54.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
23.0%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
9.8%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
32
1.57
PPG
0.88
43.3%
Win rate
18.8%
26.7%
Draw rate
31.3%
30.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
18.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
9.4%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
30
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
0.87
71.7%
Scoring rate
57.4%
48.3%
BTTS rate
36.1%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.66
76.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
56.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
61
1.23
Goals Mean
0.87
1.12
Goals Std
0.98
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
57.4%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
21.3%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
4.9%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.66
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.00
68.3%
Conceding rate
68.9%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.19
70.0%
Conceding rate
78.1%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
61
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.09
Conceded Std
1.06
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.0%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.6%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
61
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.49
4.23
Stability score
1.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
61
22
Lead Matches
14
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
17
35.3%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.77
Rest days
84.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
37
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.65
66.61
Portability Score
60.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO63.99
PPG0.32
GF0.36
GA0.18
PPG-2.00
PPG0.69
PPG1.40
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate12.0%
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Conceded 2+ rate18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.77
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score3.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.73
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate1.3%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate17.6%
Trailing Win Rate17.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score5.91
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.28
Current Team ELO63.99
Current Opponent ELO-63.99
Current ELO Difference128.0
Expected score0.18
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arzignano Valchiampo

L
Union Brescia3–2Arzignano Valchiampo6 Nov · away
Pick: Union Brescia 49% · hit
D
Lumezzane1–1Arzignano Valchiampo1 Nov · away
Pick: Arzignano Valchiampo 42% · missed
W
Arzignano Valchiampo2–0Novara25 Oct · home
Pick: Arzignano Valchiampo 50% · hit
L
Cittadella1–0Arzignano Valchiampo19 Oct · away
Pick: Cittadella 51% · hit
W
Arzignano Valchiampo1–0PRO Vercelli30 Aug · home
Pick: Arzignano Valchiampo 46% · hit

Alcione

L
Alcione0–1Lumezzane6 Nov · home
Pick: Alcione 50% · missed
W
Giana Erminio1–3Alcione31 Oct · away
Pick: Giana Erminio 44% · missed
L
Alcione1–2Athletic Carpi24 Oct · home
Pick: Alcione 58% · missed
W
Alcione4–1Desenzano Calvina18 Oct · home
Pick: Alcione 46% · hit
D
Alcione2–2Trento4 Oct · home
Pick: Alcione 41% · missed

About this match

Arzignano Valchiampo and Alcione meet in Serie C - Girone A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Tommaso Dal Molin, Arzignano. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Arzignano Valchiampo win 34.8%, draw 29.1%, Alcione win 36.1%. The pick is Alcione win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.4%. Both teams to score: 45.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.