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Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 14 2026

Athletic Carpi vs Giana Erminio

Athletic Carpi Home · Elo 1,473
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Giana Erminio Away · Elo 1,500
Stadio Sandro Cabassi, Carpi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Giana Erminio win
Athletic Carpi win
33.8%
Draw
29.2%
Giana Erminio winPick
37.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.6%
Under 2.556.4%

How much we know

Athletic Carpi history57 matches
Giana Erminio history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.0%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Giana Erminio are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Giana Erminio are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,473. On rating alone Giana Erminio would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Giana Erminio score more

    1.02 goals a game over 57 matches for Athletic Carpi, against 1.16 over 69 for Giana Erminio.

  • Giana Erminio concede fewer

    Athletic Carpi concede 1.30 a game, Giana Erminio 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Athletic Carpi matches, against 41% for Giana Erminio. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Athletic Carpi
Giana Erminio@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.7
ELO
1499.9
57
ELO · Matches
69
1472.7
Current Team ELO
1499.9
1499.9
Current Opponent ELO
1472.7
-27.17
Current ELO Difference
27.17
0.46
Expected score
0.54
57
History Matches
69
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.44
Overperformance
49.58
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
69
1.19
PPG
1.52
31.6%
Win rate
43.5%
24.6%
Draw rate
21.7%
43.9%
Loss rate
34.8%
70.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
38.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
36
1.10
PPG
1.39
24.1%
Win rate
38.9%
37.9%
Draw rate
22.2%
37.9%
Loss rate
38.9%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
31.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
6.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
29
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.16
68.4%
Scoring rate
69.6%
47.4%
BTTS rate
43.5%
0.93
Goals for per game
1.06
62.1%
Scoring rate
61.1%
51.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
69
1.02
Goals Mean
1.16
0.87
Goals Std
1.03
68.4%
Scored 1+ rate
69.6%
28.1%
Scored 2+ rate
31.9%
5.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.07
73.7%
Conceding rate
65.2%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.08
79.3%
Conceding rate
58.3%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
69
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.06
Conceded Std
1.05
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.5%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.6%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
69
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.37
Goal Difference Std
1.60
2.57
Stability score
3.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
69
11
Lead Matches
20
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
95.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.97
18
Trailing Matches
16
11.1%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.90
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
44
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
10
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.09
Portability PPG Range
1.17
91.68
Portability Score
50.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-27.17
PPG-0.33
GF-0.14
GA0.23
PPG0.00
PPG-0.29
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-0.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.44
Portability PPG Range-1.08
Portability Score40.83
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO-27.17
Current Opponent ELO27.17
Current ELO Difference-54.35
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Athletic Carpi

L
Athletic Carpi0–5Renate1 Nov · home
Pick: Renate 34% · hit
W
Alcione1–2Athletic Carpi24 Oct · away
Pick: Alcione 58% · missed
W
Athletic Carpi3–1Lumezzane17 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Carpi 37% · hit
D
Athletic Carpi3–3Juventus U2330 Aug · home
Pick: Juventus U23 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Giana Erminio

L
Giana Erminio1–3Alcione31 Oct · home
Pick: Giana Erminio 44% · missed
W
Desenzano Calvina1–2Giana Erminio25 Oct · away
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 57% · missed
W
Giana Erminio2–1Union Brescia19 Oct · home
Pick: Union Brescia 36% · missed
D
Treviso0–0Giana Erminio4 Oct · away
Pick: Treviso 38% · missed
L
Lumezzane1–0Giana Erminio30 Aug · away
Pick: Giana Erminio 40% · missed

About this match

Athletic Carpi and Giana Erminio meet in Serie C - Girone A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Sandro Cabassi, Carpi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Athletic Carpi win 33.8%, draw 29.2%, Giana Erminio win 37.0%. The pick is Giana Erminio win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.6%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.