Andorra vs Gibraltar
Match result probability Model pick: Andorra win
Andorra winPick
58.4%
Draw
20.0%
Gibraltar win
21.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.9%
No53.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%
How much we know
Andorra history19 matches
Gibraltar history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Andorra
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.4%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Andorra are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Andorra are rated 42 Elo points higher
Elo 1,456 against 1,414. On rating alone Andorra would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Gibraltar score more
0.68 goals a game over 19 matches for Andorra, against 0.79 over 14 for Gibraltar.
-
Andorra concede fewer
Andorra concede 1.47 a game, Gibraltar 2.43.
-
Gibraltar games more often go over 2.5 goals
42% of Andorra matches, against 64% for Gibraltar. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gibraltar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1456.2
ELO
1414.0
19
ELO · Matches
14
1456.2
Current Team ELO
1414.0
1414.0
Current Opponent ELO
1456.2
42.19
Current ELO Difference
-42.19
0.56
Expected score
0.44
19
History Matches
14
-0.15
Residual Mean
-0.28
42.81
Overperformance
38.54
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.60
0.50
Goals for per game
0.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
19
Matches
14
0.84
PPG
0.43
21.1%
Win rate
14.3%
21.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
57.9%
Loss rate
85.7%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.82
Venue performance10 signals 100
6
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
6
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.68
Goals for per game
0.79
31.6%
Scoring rate
35.7%
21.1%
BTTS rate
28.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
50.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
19
History Matches
14
0.68
Goals Mean
0.79
1.08
Goals Std
1.37
31.6%
Scored 1+ rate
35.7%
26.3%
Scored 2+ rate
14.3%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.40
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.47
Goals against per game
2.43
73.7%
Conceding rate
92.9%
1.17
Goals against per game
3.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
19
History Matches
14
1.47
Conceded Mean
2.43
1.23
Conceded Std
1.95
42.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
26.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.7%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
68.4%
Failed-to-score rate
64.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
68.4%
Failed-to-score rate
64.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
19
History Matches
14
0.89
Result entropy
0.37
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.82
11.48
Stability score
62.67
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
19
Eligible Matches
14
2
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.50
7
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.26
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
159.1
Rest days
160.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
7
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
7
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
1.00
Portability PPG Std
—
2.38
Portability PPG Range
—
33.35
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
19
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO42.19
PPG0.41
GF-0.10
GA-0.95
PPG1.00
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate12.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.95
Conceded Std-0.72
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches5
Result entropy0.51
Goal Difference Std-1.00
Stability score-51.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.02
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.50
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.71
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.71
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO42.19
Current Opponent ELO-42.19
Current ELO Difference84.38
Expected score0.12
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance4.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Andorra and Gibraltar meet in UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Andorra win 58.4%, draw 20.0%, Gibraltar win 21.6%. The pick is Andorra win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.