ScoreProb
UEFA Nations League World League A - 5 2026

Netherlands vs Greece

Netherlands Home · Elo 1,573
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Greece Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Netherlands win
Netherlands winPick
59.2%
Draw
17.5%
Greece win
23.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.9%
Under 2.530.1%

How much we know

Netherlands history18 matches
Greece history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.2%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Netherlands are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Netherlands are rated 85 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,573 against 1,488. On rating alone Netherlands would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Netherlands score far more

    2.61 goals a game over 18 matches for Netherlands, against 1.64 over 14 for Greece.

  • Netherlands concede fewer

    Netherlands concede 0.94 a game, Greece 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Netherlands matches, against 64% for Greece. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Netherlands
Greece@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1573.3
ELO
1488.3
18
ELO · Matches
14
1573.3
Current Team ELO
1488.3
1488.3
Current Opponent ELO
1573.3
85.06
Current ELO Difference
-85.06
0.62
Expected score
0.38
18
History Matches
14
0.23
Residual Mean
-0.03
61.05
Overperformance
48.82
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
2.60
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.90
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
18
Matches
14
2.06
PPG
1.29
55.6%
Win rate
35.7%
38.9%
Draw rate
21.4%
5.6%
Loss rate
42.9%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
6
1.92
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
16.7%
41.7%
Draw rate
50.0%
8.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
12
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.61
Goals for per game
1.64
94.4%
Scoring rate
57.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.17
91.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
18
History Matches
14
2.61
Goals Mean
1.64
1.83
Goals Std
1.76
94.4%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
72.2%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
38.9%
Scored 3+ rate
35.7%
2.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.94
Goals against per game
1.29
72.2%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.33
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
18
History Matches
14
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.29
0.70
Conceded Std
1.10
22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
18
History Matches
14
0.78
Result entropy
0.97
2.24
Goal Difference Std
2.22
22.23
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
14
9
Lead Matches
4
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.83
2
Trailing Matches
4
100.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
1.17
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
1.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
136.8
Rest days
159.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
6
Normal Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.67
61.59
Portability Score
60.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
18
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO85.06
PPG0.77
GF0.97
GA-0.34
PPG0.92
PPG1.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.97
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate37.3%
Scored 2+ rate29.4%
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.67
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.19
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score18.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate13.9%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate100.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score1.59
Rest days-22.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.20
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.50
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO85.06
Current Opponent ELO-85.06
Current ELO Difference170.1
Expected score0.24
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.26
Overperformance12.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Netherlands

W
Netherlands2–1Serbia4 Oct · home
Pick: Netherlands 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Greece

D
Greece0–0Germany4 Oct · home
Pick: Germany 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Netherlands and Greece meet in UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Netherlands win 59.2%, draw 17.5%, Greece win 23.3%. The pick is Netherlands win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.9%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.