ScoreProb
UEFA Nations League World League D - 5 2026

Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan

Liechtenstein Home · Elo 1,402
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Azerbaijan Away · Elo 1,432
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Azerbaijan win
Liechtenstein win
28.2%
Draw
22.1%
Azerbaijan winPick
49.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Liechtenstein history14 matches
Azerbaijan history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Azerbaijan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Azerbaijan are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,432 against 1,402. On rating alone Azerbaijan would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Azerbaijan score far more

    0.21 goals a game over 14 matches for Liechtenstein, against 0.93 over 14 for Azerbaijan.

  • Azerbaijan concede fewer

    Liechtenstein concede 3.21 a game, Azerbaijan 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Liechtenstein matches, against 57% for Azerbaijan. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Liechtenstein
Azerbaijan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1402.3
ELO
1431.6
14
ELO · Matches
14
1402.3
Current Team ELO
1431.6
1431.6
Current Opponent ELO
1402.3
-29.34
Current ELO Difference
29.34
0.46
Expected score
0.54
14
History Matches
14
-0.36
Residual Mean
-0.20
35.24
Overperformance
41.60
-0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
2.00
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
0.80
0.30
Goals for per game
1.20
3.30
Goals against per game
2.10
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.46
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.72
3.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
2.15
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
14
Matches
14
0.21
PPG
0.64
7.1%
Win rate
14.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
92.9%
Loss rate
64.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
0.25
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
6
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.21
Goals for per game
0.93
21.4%
Scoring rate
50.0%
14.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.25
0.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
14
History Matches
14
0.21
Goals Mean
0.93
0.41
Goals Std
1.53
21.4%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
14.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
3.21
Goals against per game
2.00
92.9%
Conceding rate
92.9%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
14
History Matches
14
3.21
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.86
Conceded Std
1.20
85.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.3%
57.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
78.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
78.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
14
History Matches
14
0.23
Result entropy
0.81
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.25
76.58
Stability score
18.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
14
1
Lead Matches
1
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
10
Trailing Matches
7
0.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.07
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.21
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
2.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
159.3
Rest days
157.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
4
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.04
—
Portability PPG Range
0.08
—
Portability Score
92.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
14
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-29.34
PPG-0.43
GF-0.71
GA1.21
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate28.6%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate25.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.71
Goals Std-1.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.26
History Matches0
Conceded Mean1.21
Conceded Std0.66
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate21.4%
Conceded 3+ rate28.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.93
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.58
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score57.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-1.00
Lead Points Retention-1.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.93
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days2.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-29.34
Current Opponent ELO29.34
Current ELO Difference-58.68
Expected score-0.08
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-6.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Liechtenstein

L
Liechtenstein0–2Gibraltar5 Oct · home
Pick: Gibraltar 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Azerbaijan

W
Azerbaijan1–0Lithuania4 Oct · home
Pick: Azerbaijan 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Liechtenstein and Azerbaijan meet in UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Liechtenstein win 28.2%, draw 22.1%, Azerbaijan win 49.7%. The pick is Azerbaijan win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.