ScoreProb
UEFA Nations League World League C - 5 2026

Slovakia vs Faroe Islands

Slovakia Home · Elo 1,510
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Faroe Islands Away · Elo 1,514
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Slovakia win
36.1%
DrawPick
37.6%
Faroe Islands win
26.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%
No52.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.7%
Under 2.557.3%

How much we know

Slovakia history13 matches
Faroe Islands history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,510 against 1,514. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.23 goals a game over 13 matches for Slovakia, against 1.15 over 13 for Faroe Islands.

  • Faroe Islands concede fewer

    Slovakia concede 1.46 a game, Faroe Islands 0.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Slovakia matches, against 46% for Faroe Islands. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slovakia
Faroe Islands@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.3
ELO
1514.1
13
ELO · Matches
13
1510.3
Current Team ELO
1514.1
1514.1
Current Opponent ELO
1510.3
-3.76
Current ELO Difference
3.76
0.49
Expected score
0.51
13
History Matches
13
0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
52.37
Overperformance
51.32
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
13
1.62
PPG
1.62
46.2%
Win rate
53.8%
23.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
30.8%
Loss rate
46.2%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
46.2%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
8
2.13
PPG
1.13
62.5%
Win rate
37.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
12.5%
Loss rate
62.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
37.5%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
8
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.23
Goals for per game
1.15
69.2%
Scoring rate
69.2%
30.8%
BTTS rate
38.5%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.75
87.5%
Scoring rate
62.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
13
History Matches
13
1.23
Goals Mean
1.15
0.97
Goals Std
1.10
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
7.7%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.46
Goals against per game
0.92
46.2%
Conceding rate
69.2%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.13
37.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
13
History Matches
13
1.46
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.95
Conceded Std
0.83
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.4%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
13
0.96
Result entropy
0.63
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.53
3.71
Stability score
37.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
13
Eligible Matches
13
3
Lead Matches
2
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
4
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
161.1
Rest days
157.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
2
Normal Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.31
Portability PPG Std
—
0.62
Portability PPG Range
—
61.76
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-3.76
PPG0.00
GF0.08
GA0.54
PPG1.00
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate37.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate15.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.19
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std1.12
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Conceded 2+ rate23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.09
History Matches0
Result entropy0.33
Goal Difference Std0.70
Stability score-33.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.80
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days3.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO-3.76
Current Opponent ELO3.76
Current ELO Difference-7.51
Expected score-0.01
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slovakia

W
Moldova0–4Slovakia6 Oct · away
Pick: Slovakia 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Faroe Islands

D
Kazakhstan2–2Faroe Islands6 Oct · away
Pick: Kazakhstan 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Slovakia and Faroe Islands meet in UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Slovakia win 36.1%, draw 37.6%, Faroe Islands win 26.3%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 42.7%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.