Bulgaria vs Iceland
Match result probability Model pick: Iceland win
Bulgaria win
33.4%
Draw
23.0%
Iceland winPick
43.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.4%
No40.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.568.0%
Under 2.532.0%
How much we know
Bulgaria history14 matches
Iceland history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Iceland
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Iceland are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,458 against 1,465. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.43 goals a game over 14 matches for Bulgaria, against 1.40 over 15 for Iceland.
-
Iceland concede fewer
Bulgaria concede 2.43 a game, Iceland 1.93.
-
Bulgaria games more often go over 2.5 goals
79% of Bulgaria matches, against 67% for Iceland. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Iceland@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1458.1
ELO
1464.8
14
ELO · Matches
15
1458.1
Current Team ELO
1464.8
1464.8
Current Opponent ELO
1458.1
-6.78
Current ELO Difference
6.78
0.49
Expected score
0.51
14
History Matches
15
-0.16
Residual Mean
-0.16
43.40
Overperformance
43.24
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
3.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
2.40
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
2.91
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
15
0.79
PPG
0.80
21.4%
Win rate
20.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
64.3%
Loss rate
60.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
3.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals 100
6
Matches
11
0.67
PPG
0.73
16.7%
Win rate
18.2%
16.7%
Draw rate
18.2%
66.7%
Loss rate
63.6%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
6
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.43
Goals for per game
1.40
57.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.91
66.7%
Scoring rate
54.5%
66.7%
BTTS rate
45.5%
14
History Matches
15
1.43
Goals Mean
1.40
2.50
Goals Std
1.40
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
7.1%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.43
Goals against per game
1.93
92.9%
Conceding rate
86.7%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.73
100.0%
Conceding rate
90.9%
14
History Matches
15
2.43
Conceded Mean
1.93
1.45
Conceded Std
1.34
78.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
35.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.7%
2.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
15
0.81
Result entropy
0.86
3.09
Goal Difference Std
2.16
18.80
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
15
5
Lead Matches
5
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.73
5
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
1.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
161.1
Rest days
156.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
4
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.33
6
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.38
—
Portability PPG Range
0.77
—
Portability Score
56.60
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-6.78
PPG-0.01
GF0.03
GA0.50
PPG-0.06
PPG1.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate9.5%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std1.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std1.86
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.50
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.94
Stability score5.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.88
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days4.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.42
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-6.78
Current Opponent ELO6.78
Current ELO Difference-13.55
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Bulgaria and Iceland meet in UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Bulgaria win 33.4%, draw 23.0%, Iceland win 43.6%. The pick is Iceland win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.0%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.