Serbia vs Germany
Match result probability Model pick: Germany win
Serbia win
20.8%
Draw
21.3%
Germany winPick
58.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.0%
No47.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%
How much we know
Serbia history14 matches
Germany history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Germany
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Germany are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Germany are rated 62 Elo points higher
Elo 1,566 against 1,504. On rating alone Germany would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Germany score far more
1.07 goals a game over 14 matches for Serbia, against 2.50 over 18 for Germany.
-
Germany concede fewer
Serbia concede 1.64 a game, Germany 1.17.
-
Germany games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Serbia matches, against 72% for Germany. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 30 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Germany@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1504.1
ELO
1566.0
14
ELO · Matches
18
1504.1
Current Team ELO
1566.0
1566.0
Current Opponent ELO
1504.1
-61.88
Current ELO Difference
61.88
0.41
Expected score
0.59
14
History Matches
18
0.00
Residual Mean
0.20
50.06
Overperformance
59.62
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.32
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.60
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.50
0.90
Goals for per game
3.10
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.97
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
18
1.43
PPG
2.11
42.9%
Win rate
66.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
11.1%
42.9%
Loss rate
22.2%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
Venue performance10 signals 100
6
Matches
7
2.00
PPG
2.14
66.7%
Win rate
71.4%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
2.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
6
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.07
Goals for per game
2.50
57.1%
Scoring rate
88.9%
35.7%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.71
66.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
57.1%
14
History Matches
18
1.07
Goals Mean
2.50
1.10
Goals Std
1.86
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
38.9%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.64
Goals against per game
1.17
71.4%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.29
66.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
14
History Matches
18
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.67
Conceded Std
0.96
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
18
0.91
Result entropy
0.77
2.38
Goal Difference Std
2.31
8.59
Stability score
22.75
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
18
2
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.90
9
Trailing Matches
5
33.3%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
40.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.39
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
161.7
Rest days
137.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.60
3
Normal Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
6
Long Rest History Matches
7
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.14
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.76
0.88
Portability PPG Range
2.00
53.33
Portability Score
39.75
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-61.88
PPG-0.68
GF-1.43
GA0.48
PPG-0.14
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate31.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate19.0%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-1.43
Goals Std-0.76
Scored 1+ rate-0.32
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.72
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate17.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.77
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-14.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-1.13
Portability Score13.58
Rest days24.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.40
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.48
Current Team ELO-61.88
Current Opponent ELO61.88
Current ELO Difference-123.8
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance-9.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.41
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Serbia and Germany meet in UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Serbia win 20.8%, draw 21.3%, Germany win 58.0%. The pick is Germany win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.