Moldova vs Kazakhstan
Match result probability Model pick: Kazakhstan win
Moldova win
19.2%
Draw
24.3%
Kazakhstan winPick
56.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.2%
No48.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.8%
Under 2.536.2%
How much we know
Moldova history14 matches
Kazakhstan history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Kazakhstan
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.4%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Kazakhstan are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kazakhstan are rated 69 Elo points higher
Elo 1,478 against 1,409. On rating alone Kazakhstan would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Kazakhstan score more
0.79 goals a game over 14 matches for Moldova, against 1.07 over 14 for Kazakhstan.
-
Kazakhstan concede fewer
Moldova concede 3.14 a game, Kazakhstan 1.57.
-
Moldova games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Moldova matches, against 36% for Kazakhstan. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 9 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kazakhstan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1409.1
ELO
1478.0
14
ELO · Matches
14
1409.1
Current Team ELO
1478.0
1478.0
Current Opponent ELO
1409.1
-68.95
Current ELO Difference
68.95
0.40
Expected score
0.60
14
History Matches
14
-0.34
Residual Mean
-0.09
36.17
Overperformance
46.25
-0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.20
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
3.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
3.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
2.79
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
14
0.21
PPG
1.07
0.0%
Win rate
28.6%
21.4%
Draw rate
21.4%
78.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals 100
6
Matches
8
0.17
PPG
0.63
0.0%
Win rate
12.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
83.3%
Loss rate
62.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
6
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.79
Goals for per game
1.07
57.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
42.9%
0.67
Goals for per game
0.88
33.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
62.5%
14
History Matches
14
0.79
Goals Mean
1.07
0.77
Goals Std
1.03
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
21.4%
Scored 2+ rate
21.4%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
0.67
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
3.14
Goals against per game
1.57
100.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.38
100.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
14
History Matches
14
3.14
Conceded Mean
1.57
2.45
Conceded Std
1.72
85.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
42.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
14
0.47
Result entropy
0.94
2.55
Goal Difference Std
2.35
52.71
Stability score
5.83
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
14
0
Lead Matches
6
—
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.72
11
Trailing Matches
5
18.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
1.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
1.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
157.1
Rest days
157.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
6
0.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.19
Portability PPG Std
—
0.38
Portability PPG Range
—
72.73
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-68.95
PPG-0.86
GF-0.29
GA1.57
PPG-0.46
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate41.7%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches0
Conceded Mean1.57
Conceded Std0.73
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate57.1%
Conceded 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.04
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.47
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score46.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-6
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Current Team ELO-68.95
Current Opponent ELO68.95
Current ELO Difference-137.9
Expected score-0.20
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.24
Overperformance-10.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Moldova
L
Moldova0–4Slovakia6 Oct · home
Pick: Slovakia 54% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Kazakhstan
D
Kazakhstan2–2Faroe Islands6 Oct · home
Pick: Kazakhstan 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Moldova and Kazakhstan meet in UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Moldova win 19.2%, draw 24.3%, Kazakhstan win 56.4%. The pick is Kazakhstan win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.8%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.