Ards vs Moyola Park
Match result probability Model pick: Ards win
Ards winPick
59.2%
Draw
17.6%
Moyola Park win
23.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.6%
No42.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%
How much we know
Ards history64 matches
Moyola Park history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ards
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.2%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Ards are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,491 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Moyola Park score more
1.47 goals a game over 64 matches for Ards, against 1.78 over 27 for Moyola Park.
-
Ards concede fewer
Ards concede 1.28 a game, Moyola Park 1.56.
-
Moyola Park games more often go over 2.5 goals
53% of Ards matches, against 74% for Moyola Park. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Moyola Park@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1490.8
ELO
1486.8
64
ELO · Matches
27
1490.8
Current Team ELO
1486.8
1486.8
Current Opponent ELO
1490.8
3.98
Current ELO Difference
-3.98
0.51
Expected score
0.49
64
History Matches
27
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.48
Overperformance
49.54
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals 90
64
Matches
27
1.44
PPG
1.44
40.6%
Win rate
44.4%
21.9%
Draw rate
11.1%
37.5%
Loss rate
44.4%
73.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
11
1.46
PPG
1.27
39.3%
Win rate
36.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
18.2%
32.1%
Loss rate
45.5%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
28
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.78
71.9%
Scoring rate
77.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.00
78.6%
Scoring rate
63.6%
60.7%
BTTS rate
45.5%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
27
1.47
Goals Mean
1.78
1.37
Goals Std
1.62
71.9%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
46.9%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.9%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.56
71.9%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.45
67.9%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
64
History Matches
27
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.17
Conceded Std
1.10
34.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.3%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
64
History Matches
27
0.97
Result entropy
0.88
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.25
2.95
Stability score
12.17
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
62
Eligible Matches
19
20
Lead Matches
6
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.83
18
Trailing Matches
7
27.8%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.24
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
48
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
14
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
8
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.63
Portability PPG Range
1.65
43.35
Portability Score
43.66
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
64
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO3.98
PPG-0.01
GF-0.31
GA-0.27
PPG0.75
PPG0.19
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches37
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches37
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate2.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches37
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches37
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-9.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.21
Eligible Matches43
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate1.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate13.5%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches43
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score-0.31
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches39
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO3.98
Current Opponent ELO-3.98
Current ELO Difference7.95
Expected score0.01
History Matches37
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ards
D
Ards1–1Newry City AFC31 Oct · home
Pick: Ards 62% · missed D
Armagh City1–1Ards24 Oct · away
Pick: Ards 65% · missed L
Ards0–2Institute16 Oct · home
Pick: Ards 54% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Moyola Park
L
Moyola Park1–2Newry City AFC6 Nov · home
Pick: Moyola Park 49% · missed D
Institute1–1Moyola Park31 Oct · away
Pick: Institute 46% · missed W
Dundela1–4Moyola Park20 Oct · away
Pick: Dundela 55% · missed L
Moyola Park2–3Newington Youth16 Oct · home
Pick: Newington Youth 53% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Ards and Moyola Park meet in Championship on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Ards win 59.2%, draw 17.6%, Moyola Park win 23.2%. The pick is Ards win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.7%. Both teams to score: 57.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.