ScoreProb
Championship Northern Ireland Round 16 2026

Newington Youth vs Warrenpoint Town

Newington Youth Home · Elo 1,545
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Warrenpoint Town Away · Elo 1,416
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Newington Youth win
Newington Youth winPick
62.2%
Draw
21.3%
Warrenpoint Town win
16.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.3%
Under 2.532.7%

How much we know

Newington Youth history63 matches
Warrenpoint Town history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.

Why Newington Youth are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Newington Youth are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,416. On rating alone Newington Youth would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Newington Youth score far more

    2.10 goals a game over 63 matches for Newington Youth, against 1.20 over 49 for Warrenpoint Town.

  • Defences are close

    Newington Youth concede 1.71 a game, Warrenpoint Town 1.55.

  • Newington Youth games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Newington Youth matches, against 45% for Warrenpoint Town. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Newington Youth
Warrenpoint Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.0
ELO
1416.5
63
ELO · Matches
49
1545.0
Current Team ELO
1416.5
1416.5
Current Opponent ELO
1545.0
128.6
Current ELO Difference
-128.6
0.68
Expected score
0.32
63
History Matches
49
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.09
52.11
Overperformance
43.90
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
2.00
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
49
1.57
PPG
1.04
46.0%
Win rate
28.6%
19.0%
Draw rate
18.4%
34.9%
Loss rate
53.1%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.3%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
54.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
25
2.10
PPG
0.80
69.0%
Win rate
20.0%
3.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
27.6%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
82.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
58.6%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
29
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
90.5%
Scoring rate
55.1%
71.4%
BTTS rate
36.7%
2.45
Goals for per game
0.96
96.6%
Scoring rate
44.0%
65.5%
BTTS rate
28.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
63
History Matches
49
2.10
Goals Mean
1.20
1.23
Goals Std
1.43
90.5%
Scored 1+ rate
55.1%
68.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
31.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
2.45
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.71
Goals against per game
1.55
77.8%
Conceding rate
75.5%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.56
69.0%
Conceding rate
76.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
49
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.37
Conceded Std
1.29
50.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.5%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.9%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.9%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
49
0.95
Result entropy
0.92
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.91
5.30
Stability score
8.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
43
22
Lead Matches
12
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.67
19
Trailing Matches
14
31.6%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.24
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
46
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
16
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
1.50
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.50
48.20
Portability Score
44.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO128.6
PPG0.53
GF0.89
GA0.16
PPG1.00
PPG1.30
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.53
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.89
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate35.4%
Scored 2+ rate35.6%
Scored 3+ rate11.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches14
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-3.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate28.0%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate24.4%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score4.02
Rest days-0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.67
Current Team ELO128.6
Current Opponent ELO-128.6
Current ELO Difference257.2
Expected score0.35
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Newington Youth

W
Newry City AFC0–2Newington Youth23 Oct · away
Pick: Newington Youth 56% · hit
L
Newington Youth1–3Ballymena United20 Oct · home
Pick: Ballymena United 41% · hit
W
Moyola Park2–3Newington Youth16 Oct · away
Pick: Newington Youth 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Warrenpoint Town

D
Ballinamallard United2–2Warrenpoint Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Ballinamallard United 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Newington Youth and Warrenpoint Town meet in Championship on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Newington Youth win 62.2%, draw 21.3%, Warrenpoint Town win 16.5%. The pick is Newington Youth win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.3%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.