Annagh United vs Ballinamallard United
Match result probability Model pick: Annagh United win
Annagh United winPick
51.9%
Draw
25.3%
Ballinamallard United win
22.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.2%
No46.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%
How much we know
Annagh United history64 matches
Ballinamallard United history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Annagh United
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Annagh United are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Annagh United are rated 132 Elo points higher
Elo 1,549 against 1,416. On rating alone Annagh United would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.
-
Annagh United score far more
1.69 goals a game over 64 matches for Annagh United, against 1.08 over 64 for Ballinamallard United.
-
Annagh United concede fewer
Annagh United concede 1.34 a game, Ballinamallard United 1.52.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
56% of Annagh United matches, against 53% for Ballinamallard United. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ballinamallard United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1548.5
ELO
1416.4
64
ELO · Matches
64
1548.5
Current Team ELO
1416.4
1416.4
Current Opponent ELO
1548.5
132.2
Current ELO Difference
-132.2
0.68
Expected score
0.32
64
History Matches
64
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
52.63
Overperformance
45.38
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.30
2.30
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals 90
64
Matches
64
1.80
PPG
1.08
54.7%
Win rate
28.1%
15.6%
Draw rate
23.4%
29.7%
Loss rate
48.4%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
31
2.06
PPG
0.77
62.5%
Win rate
19.4%
18.8%
Draw rate
19.4%
18.8%
Loss rate
61.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
32
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.69
Goals for per game
1.08
75.0%
Scoring rate
56.3%
48.4%
BTTS rate
40.6%
1.88
Goals for per game
0.84
87.5%
Scoring rate
48.4%
56.3%
BTTS rate
35.5%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
64
1.69
Goals Mean
1.08
1.48
Goals Std
1.25
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
56.3%
51.6%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.84
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.34
Goals against per game
1.52
70.3%
Conceding rate
76.6%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.77
68.8%
Conceding rate
74.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
64
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.19
Conceded Std
1.27
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.6%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.6%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
64
History Matches
64
0.89
Result entropy
0.95
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.98
10.74
Stability score
4.61
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
61
Eligible Matches
59
26
Lead Matches
12
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.61
18
Trailing Matches
22
33.3%
Non-loss rate
4.5%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.34
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.24
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
48
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
14
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.64
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
10
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.83
62.28
Portability Score
59.69
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
64
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO132.2
PPG0.72
GF0.61
GA-0.17
PPG0.25
PPG1.29
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.39
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.61
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate18.8%
Scored 2+ rate20.3%
Scored 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score6.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.18
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate38.5%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate28.8%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score2.60
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO132.2
Current Opponent ELO-132.2
Current ELO Difference264.4
Expected score0.36
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Annagh United
W
Strabane Athletic0–1Annagh United6 Nov · away
Pick: Annagh United 47% · hit W
Loughgall0–3Annagh United31 Oct · away
Pick: Loughgall 49% · missed W
Annagh United5–1Queen's University24 Oct · home
Pick: Annagh United 45% · hit L
Annagh United3–4Limavady United20 Oct · home
Pick: Limavady United 40% · hit W
Armagh City1–3Annagh United17 Oct · away
Pick: Annagh United 62% · hit Ballinamallard United
L
Ballinamallard United0–1Rathfriland6 Nov · home
Pick: Ballinamallard United 63% · missed L
Ballinamallard United0–1Armagh City31 Oct · home
Pick: Ballinamallard United 61% · missed W
Strabane Athletic0–1Ballinamallard United23 Oct · away
Pick: Ballinamallard United 39% · hit D
Ballinamallard United2–2Warrenpoint Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Ballinamallard United 43% · missed L
Ballinamallard United1–3Annagh United29 Aug · home
Pick: Annagh United 45% · hit About this match
Annagh United and Ballinamallard United meet in Championship on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Annagh United win 51.9%, draw 25.3%, Ballinamallard United win 22.8%. The pick is Annagh United win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.