Institute vs Armagh City
Match result probability Model pick: Institute win
Institute winPick
59.5%
Draw
21.3%
Armagh City win
19.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.7%
No44.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.567.4%
Under 2.532.6%
How much we know
Institute history64 matches
Armagh City history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Institute
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.5%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Institute are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Institute are rated 193 Elo points higher
Elo 1,509 against 1,316. On rating alone Institute would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.
-
Institute score more
1.50 goals a game over 64 matches for Institute, against 1.02 over 59 for Armagh City.
-
Institute concede fewer
Institute concede 1.38 a game, Armagh City 2.75.
-
Armagh City games more often go over 2.5 goals
61% of Institute matches, against 69% for Armagh City. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Armagh City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1509.4
ELO
1316.4
64
ELO · Matches
59
1509.4
Current Team ELO
1316.4
1316.4
Current Opponent ELO
1509.4
193.0
Current ELO Difference
-193.0
0.75
Expected score
0.25
64
History Matches
59
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.15
50.35
Overperformance
38.80
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.40
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals 90
64
Matches
59
1.41
PPG
0.64
39.1%
Win rate
15.3%
23.4%
Draw rate
18.6%
37.5%
Loss rate
66.1%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.7%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
69.5%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
29
1.48
PPG
0.55
38.7%
Win rate
13.8%
32.3%
Draw rate
13.8%
29.0%
Loss rate
72.4%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
72.4%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
48.3%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.08
31
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.02
75.0%
Scoring rate
61.0%
56.3%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.03
74.2%
Scoring rate
58.6%
51.6%
BTTS rate
55.2%
0.75
Goals for per game
0.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
59
1.50
Goals Mean
1.02
1.30
Goals Std
1.16
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
61.0%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
20.3%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.38
Goals against per game
2.75
70.3%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.29
Goals against per game
3.17
64.5%
Conceding rate
89.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
59
1.38
Conceded Mean
2.75
1.31
Conceded Std
2.30
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
69.5%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
45.8%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
3.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.0%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.0%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
64
History Matches
59
0.98
Result entropy
0.80
1.80
Goal Difference Std
2.74
2.15
Stability score
20.48
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
61
Eligible Matches
54
17
Lead Matches
13
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
46.2%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.54
14
Trailing Matches
27
21.4%
Non-loss rate
14.8%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.22
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.52
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.24
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
51
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
12
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.38
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.50
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.55
Portability PPG Range
0.35
67.31
Portability Score
75.39
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
64
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO193.0
PPG0.76
GF0.48
GA-1.37
PPG0.50
PPG0.93
PPG0.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate14.0%
Scored 2+ rate21.8%
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-1.37
Conceded Std-1.00
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Conceded Mean-1.88
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches5
Result entropy0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.94
Stability score-18.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate36.2%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate6.6%
Trailing Win Rate6.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.75
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-8.08
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.69
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.37
Current Team ELO193.0
Current Opponent ELO-193.0
Current ELO Difference386.0
Expected score0.50
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance11.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Institute
D
Institute1–1Moyola Park31 Oct · home
Pick: Institute 46% · missed L
Institute0–3Loughgall20 Oct · home
Pick: Institute 38% · missed W
Ards0–2Institute16 Oct · away
Pick: Ards 54% · missed L
Institute1–3Newry City AFC29 Aug · home
Pick: Institute 54% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Armagh City
W
Ballinamallard United0–1Armagh City31 Oct · away
Pick: Ballinamallard United 61% · missed D
Armagh City1–1Ards24 Oct · home
Pick: Ards 65% · missed L
Armagh City1–3H&W Welders20 Oct · home
Pick: H&W Welders 63% · hit L
Armagh City1–3Annagh United17 Oct · home
Pick: Annagh United 62% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Institute and Armagh City meet in Championship on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Institute win 59.5%, draw 21.3%, Armagh City win 19.1%. The pick is Institute win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.4%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.