Queen's University vs Dundela
Match result probability Model pick: Queen's University win
Queen's University winPick
46.0%
Draw
26.1%
Dundela win
28.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.2%
No39.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%
How much we know
Queen's University history48 matches
Dundela history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Queen's University
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Queen's University are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Queen's University are rated 143 Elo points higher
Elo 1,521 against 1,378. On rating alone Queen's University would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
Queen's University score more
1.48 goals a game over 48 matches for Queen's University, against 1.18 over 65 for Dundela.
-
Queen's University concede fewer
Queen's University concede 1.44 a game, Dundela 2.12.
-
Dundela games more often go over 2.5 goals
46% of Queen's University matches, against 68% for Dundela. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dundela@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1520.8
ELO
1378.3
48
ELO · Matches
65
1520.8
Current Team ELO
1378.3
1378.3
Current Opponent ELO
1520.8
142.5
Current ELO Difference
-142.5
0.69
Expected score
0.31
48
History Matches
65
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.09
51.83
Overperformance
43.21
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
2.30
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
65
1.42
PPG
0.74
37.5%
Win rate
13.8%
29.2%
Draw rate
32.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
53.8%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
90.8%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
67.7%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.6%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
32
1.56
PPG
0.53
40.0%
Win rate
9.4%
36.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
24.0%
Loss rate
65.6%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.8%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
25
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.18
68.8%
Scoring rate
76.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
69.2%
1.76
Goals for per game
0.94
72.0%
Scoring rate
68.8%
56.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
65
1.48
Goals Mean
1.18
1.61
Goals Std
0.97
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
27.7%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.44
Goals against per game
2.12
77.1%
Conceding rate
90.8%
1.36
Goals against per game
2.25
76.0%
Conceding rate
93.8%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
65
1.44
Conceded Mean
2.12
1.21
Conceded Std
1.20
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
72.3%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.4%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.2%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.2%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
65
1.00
Result entropy
0.88
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.60
0.48
Stability score
11.51
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
63
9
Lead Matches
17
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
29.4%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.45
17
Trailing Matches
27
29.4%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
7.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.25
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.24
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
15
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.69
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
75.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.40
78.50
Portability Score
75.91
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO142.5
PPG0.68
GF0.29
GA-0.69
PPG1.00
PPG1.03
PPG1.40
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate17.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.63
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate9.8%
Scored 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.68
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.69
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.29
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.58
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.52
Stability score-11.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate37.3%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate7.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score2.58
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.81
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO142.5
Current Opponent ELO-142.5
Current ELO Difference285.0
Expected score0.39
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Queen's University
L
Queen's University2–4Glenavon FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Glenavon FC 37% · hit L
Annagh United5–1Queen's University24 Oct · away
Pick: Annagh United 45% · hit D
Queen's University1–1Newry City AFC17 Oct · home
Pick: Queen's University 56% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Dundela
L
Dundela1–4Moyola Park20 Oct · home
Pick: Dundela 55% · missed L
Dundela0–1Rathfriland17 Oct · home
Pick: Dundela 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Queen's University and Dundela meet in Championship on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Queen's University win 46.0%, draw 26.1%, Dundela win 28.0%. The pick is Queen's University win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.4%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.