Loughgall vs Glenavon FC
Match result probability Model pick: Loughgall win
Loughgall winPick
38.3%
Draw
30.3%
Glenavon FC win
31.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.6%
No44.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%
How much we know
Loughgall history65 matches
Glenavon FC history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Loughgall
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why Loughgall are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Loughgall are rated 115 Elo points higher
Elo 1,529 against 1,414. On rating alone Loughgall would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
-
Loughgall score more
1.29 goals a game over 65 matches for Loughgall, against 1.16 over 68 for Glenavon FC.
-
Loughgall concede fewer
Loughgall concede 1.32 a game, Glenavon FC 1.65.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
52% of Loughgall matches, against 54% for Glenavon FC. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Glenavon FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1528.9
ELO
1414.0
65
ELO · Matches
68
1528.9
Current Team ELO
1414.0
1414.0
Current Opponent ELO
1528.9
114.9
Current ELO Difference
-114.9
0.66
Expected score
0.34
65
History Matches
68
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.07
52.09
Overperformance
44.84
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.25
Overall performance9 signals 90
65
Matches
68
1.35
PPG
0.96
35.4%
Win rate
26.5%
29.2%
Draw rate
16.2%
35.4%
Loss rate
57.4%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.4%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals 100
34
Matches
36
1.44
PPG
0.89
41.2%
Win rate
22.2%
20.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
38.2%
Loss rate
55.6%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
34
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.16
73.8%
Scoring rate
60.3%
55.4%
BTTS rate
48.5%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.19
82.4%
Scoring rate
63.9%
58.8%
BTTS rate
52.8%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
68
1.29
Goals Mean
1.16
1.03
Goals Std
1.20
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
60.3%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
35.3%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.65
73.8%
Conceding rate
86.8%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.72
76.5%
Conceding rate
86.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
68
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.16
Conceded Std
1.17
36.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.5%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.1%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
39.7%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
39.7%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
65
History Matches
68
1.00
Result entropy
0.88
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.89
0.35
Stability score
12.13
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
62
Eligible Matches
66
14
Lead Matches
17
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.69
22
Trailing Matches
30
22.7%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.24
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.82
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.57
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.47
39.68
Portability Score
46.76
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
65
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO114.9
PPG0.40
GF0.13
GA-0.32
PPG0.25
PPG0.55
PPG0.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate13.6%
Scored 2+ rate6.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score-11.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.62
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate13.9%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate6.1%
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-7.08
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO114.9
Current Opponent ELO-114.9
Current ELO Difference229.8
Expected score0.32
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Loughgall
L
Loughgall0–3Annagh United31 Oct · home
Pick: Loughgall 49% · missed W
H&W Welders1–2Loughgall24 Oct · away
Pick: H&W Welders 51% · missed W
Institute0–3Loughgall20 Oct · away
Pick: Institute 38% · missed D
Strabane Athletic1–1Loughgall16 Oct · away
Pick: Loughgall 49% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Glenavon FC
W
Queen's University2–4Glenavon FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Glenavon FC 37% · hit W
Strabane Athletic0–5Glenavon FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Glenavon FC 51% · hit W
Glenavon FC4–0H&W Welders16 Oct · home
Pick: H&W Welders 39% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Loughgall and Glenavon FC meet in Championship on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Lakeview Park, Loughgall. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Loughgall win 38.3%, draw 30.3%, Glenavon FC win 31.4%. The pick is Loughgall win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.