Newry City AFC vs Strabane Athletic
Match result probability Model pick: Newry City AFC win
Newry City AFC winPick
45.7%
Draw
23.5%
Strabane Athletic win
30.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.4%
No41.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%
How much we know
Newry City AFC history35 matches
Strabane Athletic history24 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Newry City AFC
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Newry City AFC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Strabane Athletic are rated 31 Elo points higher
Elo 1,525 against 1,495. On rating alone Strabane Athletic would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Strabane Athletic score more
1.29 goals a game over 35 matches for Newry City AFC, against 1.92 over 24 for Strabane Athletic.
-
Newry City AFC concede fewer
Newry City AFC concede 1.40 a game, Strabane Athletic 1.92.
-
Strabane Athletic games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Newry City AFC matches, against 79% for Strabane Athletic. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Strabane Athletic@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1494.7
ELO
1525.3
35
ELO · Matches
24
1494.7
Current Team ELO
1525.3
1525.3
Current Opponent ELO
1494.7
-30.53
Current ELO Difference
30.53
0.46
Expected score
0.54
35
History Matches
24
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
49.99
Overperformance
52.81
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals 90
35
Matches
24
1.43
PPG
1.75
42.9%
Win rate
54.2%
14.3%
Draw rate
12.5%
42.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
54.2%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
12
1.58
PPG
1.33
47.4%
Win rate
41.7%
15.8%
Draw rate
8.3%
36.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.95
19
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.92
80.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
42.9%
BTTS rate
70.8%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.75
73.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
31.6%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
35
History Matches
24
1.29
Goals Mean
1.92
0.94
Goals Std
1.38
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
34.3%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.92
60.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.11
Goals against per game
2.50
52.6%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
35
History Matches
24
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.92
1.44
Conceded Std
1.63
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
2.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
35
History Matches
24
0.91
Result entropy
0.87
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.33
8.59
Stability score
12.78
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
31
Eligible Matches
16
12
Lead Matches
8
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.92
9
Trailing Matches
7
11.1%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
18
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.99
1.42
Portability PPG Range
2.28
49.69
Portability Score
33.51
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
35
Clean History Matches
24
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-30.53
PPG-0.32
GF-0.63
GA-0.52
PPG0.75
PPG0.25
PPG1.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate27.5%
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate30.7%
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.63
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate27.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches11
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-4.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.37
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.49
Portability PPG Range-0.87
Portability Score16.19
Rest days0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO-30.53
Current Opponent ELO30.53
Current ELO Difference-61.06
Expected score-0.09
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-2.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Newry City AFC
W
Moyola Park1–2Newry City AFC6 Nov · away
Pick: Moyola Park 49% · missed D
Ards1–1Newry City AFC31 Oct · away
Pick: Ards 62% · missed L
Newry City AFC0–2Newington Youth23 Oct · home
Pick: Newington Youth 56% · hit L
Carrick Rangers3–0Newry City AFC20 Oct · away
Pick: Carrick Rangers 66% · hit D
Queen's University1–1Newry City AFC17 Oct · away
Pick: Queen's University 56% · missed Strabane Athletic
L
Strabane Athletic0–1Annagh United6 Nov · home
Pick: Annagh United 47% · hit D
Rathfriland2–2Strabane Athletic30 Oct · away
Pick: Strabane Athletic 50% · missed L
Strabane Athletic0–1Ballinamallard United23 Oct · home
Pick: Ballinamallard United 39% · hit L
Strabane Athletic0–5Glenavon FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Glenavon FC 51% · hit D
Strabane Athletic1–1Loughgall16 Oct · home
Pick: Loughgall 49% · missed About this match
Newry City AFC and Strabane Athletic meet in Championship on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at The Showgrounds, Newry. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Newry City AFC win 45.7%, draw 23.5%, Strabane Athletic win 30.8%. The pick is Newry City AFC win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.8%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.