Argentina vs Uruguay
Match result probability Model pick: Argentina win
Argentina winPick
66.9%
Draw
18.8%
Uruguay win
14.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes42.9%
No57.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.0%
Under 2.549.0%
How much we know
Argentina history16 matches
Uruguay history10 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Argentina
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 22:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 23:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why Argentina are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Argentina are rated 94 Elo points higher
Elo 1,606 against 1,512. On rating alone Argentina would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
Argentina score far more
2.19 goals a game over 16 matches for Argentina, against 0.80 over 10 for Uruguay.
-
Argentina concede fewer
Argentina concede 0.50 a game, Uruguay 1.10.
-
Argentina games more often go over 2.5 goals
44% of Argentina matches, against 30% for Uruguay. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Uruguay@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1605.5
ELO
1512.0
16
ELO · Matches
10
1605.5
Current Team ELO
1512.0
1512.0
Current Opponent ELO
1605.5
93.51
Current ELO Difference
-93.51
0.63
Expected score
0.37
16
History Matches
10
0.35
Residual Mean
0.02
65.64
Overperformance
50.81
0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals 90
16
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.20
75.0%
Win rate
20.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals 100
10
Matches
7
2.40
PPG
1.14
70.0%
Win rate
14.3%
30.0%
Draw rate
71.4%
0.0%
Loss rate
14.3%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
10
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.19
Goals for per game
0.80
93.8%
Scoring rate
60.0%
43.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.10
Goals for per game
0.71
100.0%
Scoring rate
57.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
16
History Matches
10
2.19
Goals Mean
0.80
1.42
Goals Std
0.75
93.8%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
37.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.10
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.50
Goals against per game
1.10
43.8%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.14
50.0%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
16
History Matches
10
0.50
Conceded Mean
1.10
0.61
Conceded Std
1.45
6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
0.60
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
16
History Matches
10
0.51
Result entropy
0.86
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.35
48.81
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
16
Eligible Matches
10
12
Lead Matches
1
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.33
2
Trailing Matches
3
100.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
1.06
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
117.2
Rest days
140.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
11
Normal Rest History Matches
3
2.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
4
Long Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.08
59.83
Portability Score
48.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
16
Clean History Matches
10
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO93.51
PPG1.30
GF1.39
GA-0.60
PPG2.00
PPG1.26
PPG1.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches6
Goals Mean1.39
Goals Std0.68
Scored 1+ rate33.8%
Scored 2+ rate42.5%
Scored 3+ rate37.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.25
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.60
Conceded Std-0.83
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.35
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score35.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate83.3%
Lead Points Retention0.56
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate50.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score11.83
Rest days-22.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.61
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.50
Current Team ELO93.51
Current Opponent ELO-93.51
Current ELO Difference187.0
Expected score0.26
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.33
Overperformance14.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Argentina and Uruguay meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Argentina win 66.9%, draw 18.8%, Uruguay win 14.3%. The pick is Argentina win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.0%. Both teams to score: 42.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.