England U21 vs Portugal U21
Match result probability Model pick: England U21 win
England U21 winPick
42.0%
Draw
24.8%
Portugal U21 win
33.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.4%
No52.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%
How much we know
England U21 history13 matches
Portugal U21 history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours England U21
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why England U21 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,569 against 1,567. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Portugal U21 score more
2.23 goals a game over 13 matches for England U21, against 3.42 over 12 for Portugal U21.
-
Portugal U21 concede fewer
England U21 concede 0.69 a game, Portugal U21 0.08.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
62% of England U21 matches, against 67% for Portugal U21. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 3 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Portugal U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1569.5
ELO
1567.0
13
ELO · Matches
12
1569.5
Current Team ELO
1567.0
1567.0
Current Opponent ELO
1569.5
2.43
Current ELO Difference
-2.43
0.50
Expected score
0.50
13
History Matches
12
0.27
Residual Mean
0.29
60.75
Overperformance
61.01
0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.60
2.40
Goals for per game
4.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.00
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
2.50
2.50
Goals for per game
3.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.10
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.60
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.94
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.10
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.30
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.07
Overall performance9 signals 90
13
Matches
12
2.31
PPG
2.42
69.2%
Win rate
75.0%
23.1%
Draw rate
16.7%
7.7%
Loss rate
8.3%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.01
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.60
57.1%
Win rate
80.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.71
7
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.23
Goals for per game
3.42
92.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
53.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.71
Goals for per game
4.20
85.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
0.0%
—
Goals for per game
4.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
13
History Matches
12
2.23
Goals Mean
3.42
1.25
Goals Std
2.90
92.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
69.2%
Scored 2+ rate
75.0%
38.5%
Scored 3+ rate
66.7%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
4.20
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.69
Goals against per game
0.08
53.8%
Conceding rate
8.3%
0.86
Goals against per game
0.00
57.1%
Conceding rate
0.0%
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Conceding rate
0.0%
13
History Matches
12
0.69
Conceded Mean
0.08
0.72
Conceded Std
0.28
15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
91.7%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
91.7%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
91.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
13
History Matches
12
0.72
Result entropy
0.66
1.50
Goal Difference Std
3.01
28.07
Stability score
34.33
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
13
Eligible Matches
12
8
Lead Matches
6
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
0
0.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
1.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
2.33
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.08
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
227.1
Rest days
163.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
6
Normal Rest History Matches
4
2.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
4
Long Rest History Matches
5
2.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.60
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
3.00
—
Win rate
100.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
3.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
4.00
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.88
Portability PPG Range
0.96
53.16
Portability Score
50.91
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
13
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO2.43
PPG-0.11
GF-1.19
GA0.61
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.46
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.57
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Goals Mean-1.19
Goals Std-1.65
Scored 1+ rate17.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Goals Mean-2.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.82
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate-0.46
Conceded 2+ rate15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-1.51
Stability score-6.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.70
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches1
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score2.26
Rest days64.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO2.43
Current Opponent ELO-2.43
Current ELO Difference4.86
Expected score0.01
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
England U21
L
Republic of Ireland U213–1England U216 Oct · away
Pick: England U21 60% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Portugal U21
W
Portugal U212–0Czech Republic U216 Oct · home
Pick: Portugal U21 77% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
England U21 and Portugal U21 meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: England U21 win 42.0%, draw 24.8%, Portugal U21 win 33.2%. The pick is England U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.