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UEFA Nations League World League B - 5 2026

Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland

Austria Home · Elo 1,554
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rep. Of Ireland Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Austria win
Austria winPick
54.8%
Draw
23.3%
Rep. Of Ireland win
21.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

Austria history17 matches
Rep. Of Ireland history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Austria are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,554 against 1,540. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Austria score more

    2.12 goals a game over 17 matches for Austria, against 1.53 over 15 for Rep. Of Ireland.

  • Rep. Of Ireland concede fewer

    Austria concede 1.00 a game, Rep. Of Ireland 0.87.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Austria matches, against 47% for Rep. Of Ireland. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Austria
Rep. Of Ireland@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.2
ELO
1540.4
17
ELO · Matches
15
1554.2
Current Team ELO
1540.4
1540.4
Current Opponent ELO
1554.2
13.85
Current ELO Difference
-13.85
0.52
Expected score
0.48
17
History Matches
15
0.16
Residual Mean
0.14
57.55
Overperformance
55.98
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
17
Matches
15
1.94
PPG
1.80
58.8%
Win rate
46.7%
17.6%
Draw rate
40.0%
23.5%
Loss rate
13.3%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
2.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
7
2.56
PPG
1.29
77.8%
Win rate
28.6%
22.2%
Draw rate
42.9%
0.0%
Loss rate
28.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.76
9
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.12
Goals for per game
1.53
76.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
41.2%
BTTS rate
53.3%
2.78
Goals for per game
1.29
100.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
55.6%
BTTS rate
71.4%
17
History Matches
15
2.12
Goals Mean
1.53
2.42
Goals Std
1.26
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
47.1%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
29.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
2.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
0.87
64.7%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.56
Goals against per game
1.29
55.6%
Conceding rate
85.7%
17
History Matches
15
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.87
0.97
Conceded Std
0.81
23.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
17
History Matches
15
0.87
Result entropy
0.90
2.89
Goal Difference Std
1.40
12.74
Stability score
9.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
15
7
Lead Matches
5
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.73
3
Trailing Matches
5
33.3%
Non-loss rate
80.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
40.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
135.0
Rest days
161.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
5
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
7
Long Rest History Matches
8
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.84
Portability PPG Std
0.21
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.43
37.44
Portability Score
70.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
17
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO13.85
PPG0.14
GF0.58
GA0.13
PPG1.27
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate3.5%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate30.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std1.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate11.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std1.49
Stability score2.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate25.7%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.47
Trailing Win Rate-0.40
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.62
Portability PPG Range1.57
Portability Score-32.56
Rest days-26.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.38
Current Team ELO13.85
Current Opponent ELO-13.85
Current ELO Difference27.69
Expected score0.04
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Austria

D
Kosovo1–1Austria4 Oct · away
Pick: Austria 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rep. Of Ireland

D
Rep. Of Ireland1–1Israel4 Oct · home
Pick: Rep. Of Ireland 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Austria and Rep. Of Ireland meet in UEFA Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Austria win 54.8%, draw 23.3%, Rep. Of Ireland win 21.9%. The pick is Austria win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.