Romania vs Poland
Match result probability Model pick: Romania win
Romania winPick
37.0%
Draw
28.8%
Poland win
34.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.1%
No46.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%
How much we know
Romania history14 matches
Poland history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Romania
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.0%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Romania are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Poland are rated 34 Elo points higher
Elo 1,534 against 1,500. On rating alone Poland would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.71 goals a game over 14 matches for Romania, against 1.64 over 14 for Poland.
-
Poland concede fewer
Romania concede 1.36 a game, Poland 1.07.
-
Romania games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Romania matches, against 43% for Poland. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Poland@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.4
ELO
1534.1
14
ELO · Matches
14
1500.4
Current Team ELO
1534.1
1534.1
Current Opponent ELO
1500.4
-33.69
Current ELO Difference
33.69
0.45
Expected score
0.55
14
History Matches
14
0.00
Residual Mean
0.15
50.05
Overperformance
56.07
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.39
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
14
1.43
PPG
1.93
42.9%
Win rate
57.1%
14.3%
Draw rate
21.4%
42.9%
Loss rate
21.4%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
5
2.14
PPG
1.40
71.4%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
40.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
7
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
1.64
71.4%
Scoring rate
92.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
71.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
80.0%
14
History Matches
14
1.71
Goals Mean
1.64
1.94
Goals Std
0.81
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
92.9%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.36
Goals against per game
1.07
85.7%
Conceding rate
64.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
71.4%
Conceding rate
80.0%
14
History Matches
14
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.89
Conceded Std
0.96
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
14
0.91
Result entropy
0.89
2.35
Goal Difference Std
1.24
8.59
Stability score
10.80
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
14
6
Lead Matches
5
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.87
4
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
161.1
Rest days
164.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.33
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.06
Portability PPG Std
—
0.11
Portability PPG Range
—
90.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-33.69
PPG-0.50
GF0.07
GA0.29
PPG0.74
PPG0.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate21.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate28.6%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std1.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.06
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches0
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std1.11
Stability score-2.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.19
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-2.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.42
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Current Team ELO-33.69
Current Opponent ELO33.69
Current ELO Difference-67.37
Expected score-0.10
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-6.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Romania and Poland meet in UEFA Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Romania win 37.0%, draw 28.8%, Poland win 34.2%. The pick is Romania win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.2%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.