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UEFA Nations League World League B - 5 2026

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine

Northern Ireland Home · Elo 1,487
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ukraine Away · Elo 1,513
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Northern Ireland win
Northern Ireland winPick
42.7%
Draw
26.5%
Ukraine win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.9%
Under 2.551.1%

How much we know

Northern Ireland history14 matches
Ukraine history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Northern Ireland are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ukraine are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,513 against 1,487. On rating alone Ukraine would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Ukraine score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 14 matches for Northern Ireland, against 1.57 over 14 for Ukraine.

  • Northern Ireland concede fewer

    Northern Ireland concede 1.43 a game, Ukraine 1.79.

  • Ukraine games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Northern Ireland matches, against 64% for Ukraine. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Northern Ireland
Ukraine@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.5
ELO
1513.2
14
ELO · Matches
14
1486.5
Current Team ELO
1513.2
1513.2
Current Opponent ELO
1486.5
-26.64
Current ELO Difference
26.64
0.46
Expected score
0.54
14
History Matches
14
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
47.50
Overperformance
51.39
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
14
Matches
14
1.21
PPG
1.57
35.7%
Win rate
50.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
7.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
8
2.17
PPG
1.25
66.7%
Win rate
37.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
12.5%
16.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
6
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
1.57
78.6%
Scoring rate
78.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.63
83.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
16.7%
BTTS rate
62.5%
14
History Matches
14
1.00
Goals Mean
1.57
0.76
Goals Std
1.29
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
14.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
7.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.43
Goals against per game
1.79
71.4%
Conceding rate
78.6%
0.33
Goals against per game
2.25
33.3%
Conceding rate
87.5%
14
History Matches
14
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.79
1.40
Conceded Std
1.37
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
21.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.7%
0.33
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
14
History Matches
14
0.90
Result entropy
0.82
1.68
Goal Difference Std
2.01
9.68
Stability score
18.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
14
5
Lead Matches
2
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
159.0
Rest days
160.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.33
6
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.57
77.26
Portability Score
63.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
14
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-26.64
PPG-0.36
GF-0.57
GA-0.36
PPG0.92
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate54.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std-0.54
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.36
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.92
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches0
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-8.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score13.62
Rest days-1.11
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO-26.64
Current Opponent ELO26.64
Current ELO Difference-53.28
Expected score-0.08
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-3.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Northern Ireland

D
Northern Ireland0–0Georgia5 Oct · home
Pick: Northern Ireland 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ukraine

L
Ukraine1–2Hungary5 Oct · home
Pick: Hungary 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Northern Ireland and Ukraine meet in UEFA Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Northern Ireland win 42.7%, draw 26.5%, Ukraine win 30.8%. The pick is Northern Ireland win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.9%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.