Norway vs Wales
Match result probability Model pick: Norway win
Norway winPick
65.5%
Draw
18.0%
Wales win
16.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.5%
No43.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%
How much we know
Norway history20 matches
Wales history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Norway
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.5%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Norway are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Norway are rated 108 Elo points higher
Elo 1,603 against 1,494. On rating alone Norway would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Norway score far more
2.85 goals a game over 20 matches for Norway, against 1.79 over 14 for Wales.
-
Norway concede fewer
Norway concede 1.00 a game, Wales 1.43.
-
Norway games more often go over 2.5 goals
70% of Norway matches, against 50% for Wales. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 12 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1602.8
ELO
1494.4
20
ELO · Matches
14
1602.8
Current Team ELO
1494.4
1494.4
Current Opponent ELO
1602.8
108.4
Current ELO Difference
-108.4
0.65
Expected score
0.35
20
History Matches
14
0.26
Residual Mean
-0.01
63.21
Overperformance
49.72
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.91
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals 90
20
Matches
14
2.30
PPG
1.36
70.0%
Win rate
35.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
10.0%
Loss rate
35.7%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals 100
11
Matches
6
2.18
PPG
1.17
63.6%
Win rate
33.3%
27.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
9.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
3.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
11
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.85
Goals for per game
1.79
95.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
70.0%
BTTS rate
64.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.17
90.9%
Scoring rate
83.3%
63.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
20
History Matches
14
2.85
Goals Mean
1.79
2.39
Goals Std
1.74
95.0%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.43
70.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.67
63.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
20
History Matches
14
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.43
0.95
Conceded Std
1.29
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
5.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
5.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
20
History Matches
14
0.73
Result entropy
1.00
2.65
Goal Difference Std
2.16
27.02
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
20
Eligible Matches
14
10
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
4
Trailing Matches
5
75.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
1.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
125.8
Rest days
161.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
10
Normal Rest History Matches
5
2.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.80
7
Long Rest History Matches
6
2.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.22
41.16
Portability Score
45.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
20
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO108.4
PPG0.94
GF1.06
GA-0.43
PPG1.02
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Goals Mean1.06
Goals Std0.65
Scored 1+ rate9.3%
Scored 2+ rate24.3%
Scored 3+ rate21.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.74
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.27
Goal Difference Std0.49
Stability score26.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate55.0%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-3.84
Rest days-35.14
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.30
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.74
Current Team ELO108.4
Current Opponent ELO-108.4
Current ELO Difference216.7
Expected score0.30
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.27
Overperformance13.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Norway and Wales meet in UEFA Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Norway win 65.5%, draw 18.0%, Wales win 16.5%. The pick is Norway win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.7%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.