Kosovo vs Israel
Match result probability Model pick: Kosovo win
Kosovo winPick
57.9%
Draw
20.1%
Israel win
21.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.3%
No40.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%
How much we know
Kosovo history14 matches
Israel history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Kosovo
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Kosovo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kosovo are rated 34 Elo points higher
Elo 1,548 against 1,513. On rating alone Kosovo would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
2.00 goals a game over 14 matches for Kosovo, against 2.00 over 11 for Israel.
-
Kosovo concede fewer
Kosovo concede 1.21 a game, Israel 2.00.
-
Israel games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Kosovo matches, against 82% for Israel. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 8 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1547.5
ELO
1513.2
14
ELO · Matches
11
1547.5
Current Team ELO
1513.2
1513.2
Current Opponent ELO
1547.5
34.29
Current ELO Difference
-34.29
0.55
Expected score
0.45
14
History Matches
11
0.18
Residual Mean
0.03
57.48
Overperformance
51.24
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.10
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.61
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
11
2.07
PPG
1.55
64.3%
Win rate
45.5%
14.3%
Draw rate
18.2%
21.4%
Loss rate
36.4%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
81.8%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
63.6%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
Venue performance10 signals 100
8
Matches
7
2.13
PPG
1.57
62.5%
Win rate
42.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
12.5%
Loss rate
28.6%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.80
8
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
78.6%
Scoring rate
72.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
54.5%
2.13
Goals for per game
1.43
75.0%
Scoring rate
57.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
28.6%
14
History Matches
11
2.00
Goals Mean
2.00
1.56
Goals Std
1.54
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
63.6%
35.7%
Scored 3+ rate
36.4%
2.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.21
Goals against per game
2.00
64.3%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.57
62.5%
Conceding rate
57.1%
14
History Matches
11
1.21
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.21
Conceded Std
1.86
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.4%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
11
0.81
Result entropy
0.94
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.52
18.80
Stability score
5.68
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
11
5
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
4
Trailing Matches
4
50.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
1.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.45
0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
159.8
Rest days
163.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
7
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO34.29
PPG0.53
GF0.00
GA-0.79
PPG0.55
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate5.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.79
Conceded Std-0.65
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.70
Stability score13.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate50.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.81
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-4.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match2.60
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO34.29
Current Opponent ELO-34.29
Current ELO Difference68.59
Expected score0.10
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance6.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Kosovo and Israel meet in UEFA Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kosovo win 57.9%, draw 20.1%, Israel win 21.9%. The pick is Kosovo win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.9%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.