ScoreProb
Log in
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain Group 15 - 11 2026

Beti Onak vs Subiza

Beti Onak Home · Elo 1,463
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Subiza Away · Elo 1,513
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Beti Onak win
Beti Onak winPick
37.7%
Draw
26.3%
Subiza win
36.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%

How much we know

Beti Onak history48 matches
Subiza history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Beti Onak are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Subiza are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,513 against 1,463. On rating alone Subiza would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.17 goals a game over 48 matches for Beti Onak, against 1.26 over 50 for Subiza.

  • Subiza concede fewer

    Beti Onak concede 1.52 a game, Subiza 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Beti Onak matches, against 50% for Subiza. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Beti Onak
Subiza@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.7
ELO
1512.5
48
ELO · Matches
50
1462.7
Current Team ELO
1512.5
1512.5
Current Opponent ELO
1462.7
-49.78
Current ELO Difference
49.78
0.43
Expected score
0.57
48
History Matches
50
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
47.37
Overperformance
50.72
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
50
1.13
PPG
1.36
29.2%
Win rate
38.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.0%
45.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.0%
52.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.75
PPG
1.00
45.8%
Win rate
26.9%
37.5%
Draw rate
19.2%
16.7%
Loss rate
53.8%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
1.26
66.7%
Scoring rate
64.0%
58.3%
BTTS rate
42.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.04
83.3%
Scoring rate
61.5%
66.7%
BTTS rate
46.2%
48
History Matches
50
1.17
Goals Mean
1.26
0.99
Goals Std
1.29
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
64.0%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.0%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.0%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.52
Goals against per game
1.18
85.4%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.54
70.8%
Conceding rate
76.9%
48
History Matches
50
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.08
Conceded Std
1.11
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
50
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.83
3.19
Stability score
2.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
13
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.95
13
Trailing Matches
14
30.8%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
174.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.11
Portability PPG Range
0.61
90.16
Portability Score
62.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-49.78
PPG-0.24
GF-0.09
GA0.34
PPG0.75
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate2.7%
Scored 2+ rate5.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score0.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.37
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.31
Lead Points Retention-0.26
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score28.03
Rest days15.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-49.78
Current Opponent ELO49.78
Current ELO Difference-99.57
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Beti Onak

W
Beti Onak1–0Pamplona7 Nov · home
Pick: Pamplona 49% · missed
L
Txantrea2–1Beti Onak31 Oct · away
Pick: Beti Onak 36% · missed
L
Beti Onak1–4Izarra24 Oct · home
Pick: Izarra 41% · hit
W
Cortes0–4Beti Onak17 Oct · away
Pick: Cortes 52% · missed
L
Beti Kozkor3–0Beti Onak8 Oct · away
Pick: Beti Kozkor 40% · hit

Subiza

L
Izarra2–0Subiza31 Oct · away
Pick: Izarra 50% · hit
W
Subiza3–1Cortes25 Oct · home
Pick: Subiza 36% · hit
L
Huesca II4–1Subiza30 Aug · away
Pick: Huesca II 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Beti Onak and Subiza meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Beti Onak win 37.7%, draw 26.3%, Subiza win 36.1%. The pick is Beti Onak win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.8%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.